Economics
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Savings, not debt, can finance EU growth – Villeroy de Galhau
Governments need “strategic pivot” to meet structural challenges, says BdF governor
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
As a population ages, impact of deflation worsens – BoJ study
Research says falling prices inflict greatest harm on young people
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Canada’s GDP revisions ‘raise questions over monetary policy’
However, experts disagree on whether central bank’s modelling was flawed and if it cut rates too quickly
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
The past and future of BIS economics
The monetary and economic department has become an influential force in central bank economics. Claudio Borio looks back over 37 years at the institution and Hyun Song Shin looks to the future
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Bailey: UK must stay open for business
BoE governor calls for bridges to be built with EU countries and others
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Lagarde warns of widening climate finance gap
“We must adapt and become more resilient” in a fair and equitable manner, says ECB president
Book notes: The road to freedom: economics and the good society, Joseph E Stiglitz
A stimulating amalgamation of previous ideas presenting the kind of economic system most conducive to decent society
Rate uncertainty means firms hire and invest less – BdF study
European companies hoard cash and reduce dividend payments when monetary stance is unclear
ECB study highlights firms’ exposure to property downturn
Analysis examines risks to various classes of investor from exposure to commercial real estate
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change