Economics
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual
Bank lending standards can worsen financial frictions, ECB paper finds
Model shows tighter lending standards can damage productivity, researcher argues
Fed to expand market data collection efforts
The scope and availability of data must keep up with evolving markets, Lael Brainard says
Bank of England to overhaul consumer interest rate statistics
Changes are designed to ensure the statistics reflect consumers’ experiences “as closely as possible”
French banking crisis of 1930s far worse than previously thought – BdF paper
Central bank policies worsened crisis, Banque de France paper says
ECB and EBA action may have limited CoCo contagion – BoI paper
Deutsche Bank CoCos spread volatility throughout European banks in 2016, researchers find
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says more work may be needed to develop new models, despite recent progress
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
PRA using AI to understand connectivity of rulebook
UK regulator is using Google search engine algorithm to see if rulebook can be streamlined
Oxford academic argues Milton Friedman is misunderstood
James Forder says Friedman had a bigger impact on neoclassical economics than on monetarism
IMF programmes do not harm governments’ financing ability – ECB paper
Governments use IMF as an excuse when “struggling with transparency”, authors argue
Atlanta Fed launches new rental market data tool
“Affordability tracker shows many households struggle to find affordable housing”
Fed official downbeat on US labour market
US labour market participation in stark contrast to advanced-economy counterparts, Daly warns
ECB paper looks at large database on inflation expectations
Expectations more powerful when lower bound on nominal rates is binding, researchers find
Housing bottlenecks could boost eurozone inflation – ECB paper says
Labour shortage, scarcity of building land, and administrative hurdles could limit supply
Immigrants smooth eurozone labour market shocks – Bank of Italy paper
Non-EU immigrants have higher mobility than Europeans moving between countries – researchers
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Fiscal deficits caused persistent pressure for Mexican inflation, paper finds
Central bank independence stabilised inflation, researchers find
US unemployment remains at lowest level since 1969
Hourly wage growth is at highest rate since 2009, but year-on-year inflation falls to 2%
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Costa Rican public debt feeding into inflation expectations
The central bank says it remains “vigilant” to tensions that may compromise its inflation target