Economics
IMF staffers warn of looming sovereign debt crises
Governments and markets should agree to extend bond maturities, IMF says
Supply curves may be convex – ECB paper
Findings imply that Phillips curve is convex and fiscal policy is state-dependent, authors say
Central banks are using biased estimates of pass-through – BIS paper
Standard measures exchange rate pass-through fail to account for market power, researcher argues
Modellers should not exclude pandemic-era data – ECB paper
Excluding pandemic data from time series would “vastly underestimate uncertainty”, authors argue
Deep learning can beat other forecast methods – Bank of Korea research
Deep learning models have smaller margin of error than conventional methods, research finds
BoE officials fear long-term ‘scarring’ as uncertainty hits record high
MPC members broadly gloomy on the outlook, but there is “huge” uncertainty, says Andrew Bailey
BIS paper studies lifecycle of zombie companies
Number of zombie firms has risen substantially, and their future prospects are not good, authors say
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
RBA hones in on data management as part of 2021 strategic plan
Central bank will look to bolster technology infrastructure
Covid-19 could depress growth for decades – Jackson Hole paper
"Pyschological scarring” could severely stunt future investment, researchers argue
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
National Bank of Belgium paper looks at IMF research networks
IMF staff provide useful case study of how co-authorship networks form, paper says
Bank of Spain research traces impact of lockdown
Authors call for exhaustive test-and-trace to avoid future nationwide lockdowns
Colombian exchange rate shocks are asymmetric – central bank paper
Impact of 2014 drop in Colombian peso lends support to “dominant currency” theory, authors say
Banks are crucial investment source for French firms – BdF paper
Researchers use BdF database to examine how French companies finance their investments
Podcast: Cleveland Fed director on all things inflation and Covid-19
Robert Rich discusses money supply growth and muted inflation, plus new Fed research
Bundesbank paper uses neural networks for rate forecasting
Artificial neural networks outperform linear and non-linear functions, author says
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but there are drawbacks
ECB paper sets out new dataset on trade invoicing currencies
Dataset sheds new light on the importance of “dominant currency paradigm”, authors say
Foreign financing can help exporters survive – BIS paper
Result could be important for the development of emerging economies, authors say