Economics
Neural networks are ‘powerful tool’ for non-linear analysis – paper
Machine learning technique highlights downsides to inflation target ranges
Central banks need to avoid ‘overconfidence’, says RBA’s Hauser
Deputy governor warns against 'false prophets' when forecasting with point estimates
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
US’s indirect reliance on Chinese goods rises – NY Fed research
Study finds country’s largest partners are importing increasing amounts of goods from China
Grocery inflation caused by wages and raw goods prices – Fed study
Research comes as FTC launches inquiry into alleged price gouging by US retailers
NY Fed study documents widespread manufacturing slowdown
Firms of all sizes in industries across US are affected, according to research
US productivity may fuel interest rate divergence and dollar strength – Fed study
Business dynamism and financing conditions may explain lack of spillover into other advanced economies
Falling r* a ‘mirage’ in open economies – IMF paper
Adding exchange rate to standard model significantly changes predictions, authors find
Income not main determinant of inflation variances – ECB study
Research claims “fixed shopping basket” method not helpful for measuring differences across households
The unbearable lightness of the krone
Norway's weak currency reflects financial markets’ lack of confidence in the country's economic policy
End of QQE and US rate decline will rein in Japanese yields – study
Japan’s institutional investors likely to stay in foreign bond markets, researchers say
Higher-for-longer inflation remains risk – Bank of Finland chief
Political uncertainty in eurozone dominating discussions in Frankfurt, says Olli Rehn
State-supplied firms in Belgium are less profitable – study
Research by central bank shows financially troubled firms sustained by government orders
IMF warns of slowing disinflation path
Higher interest rates in advanced economies could trigger “harmful spillovers”, chief economist warns
French energy ‘tariff shield’ cut inflation by 2.6% in 2022 – report
Authors say measures helped to boost household purchasing power and corporate margins
Regional disparities wider among EU’s newer members – study
Research shows that the poorer the country, the bigger the gap between its capital and its regions
BoE economists hunt ‘driving forces’ of forecast errors
“Systematic” study of mistakes finds wage growth and expectations could have been modelled better
Full-scale war with Hezbollah is a tail-end event – Bank of Israel deputy
Andrew Abir says central bank has advised government to ensure adequate fiscal space as it expects war to last longer and revises its growth and inflation forecasts
ECB official calls for European AI strategy
Plan required to keep European firms competitive, ECB board member Cipollone says
‘Unprecedented’ immigration boosts US economy – Dallas Fed
Authors say there is reason to believe immigration is net neutral for inflation
US labour markets approaching pre-pandemic state, report finds
Simple rules suggest fed funds rate should be at or below current level, report says
Inflation rebounds in OECD countries
Rising energy costs drive uptick in many economies, but G7 avoids increase
Dollar exchange rate variation affects prices less than euro – Riksbank study
Krona-dollar depreciation often coincides with downturn in demand