Economics
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
Fannie, Freddie … and Donald
Trump’s plan to privatise GSEs may pose systemic risks if not done properly – and Fed may have to intervene, say experts
Trust allows ‘decisive’ policy action – Carstens
BIS general manager says more work is needed to secure trust in financial stability and fiscal policy
Lagarde calls for euro to take on global role
ECB president says EU can be bulwark of stability amid increasing economic upheaval
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
US faces mounting costs if trade war escalates – study
Fed economists monitor effect on asset and consumer goods prices under blanket 25% tariff
Tariffs not the only policy causing uncertainty – Fed presidents
Officials highlight risks from US administration’s approaches to deregulation and immigration
US citizens increasingly reluctant to relocate – study
Richmond Fed research cites multiple causes, including narrowing gender gap and seniors’ wish to stay put
Growth in US CRE loans hits 11-year low – research
St Louis Fed study says developers responding to higher costs and lower demand
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
GSEs not lending as much as they appear to be – NY Fed paper
Much of enterprises’ loans to “real economy” are in fact financed by other types of institution
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path
Bank of Mexico puts growth before prices with rate cut
Economists say decision reflects concerns about possible tariff-induced recession
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
Fed researchers call for new definition of ‘unbanked’
Economists support paper’s more nuanced approach, but caution against dropping current terminology
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Global reset is testing emerging markets – Gopinath
IMF’s deputy managing director says small economies must be ready to respond forcefully to inflation
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’