Economics
IDB announces organisational restructure
Bank creates new VP role and divisions, and elevates chief economist
Rehn reiterates need for inquiry into demographics, inflation
Europeans need to ready themselves for trade fragmentation, says Bank of Finland governor
PBoC cuts loan prime rates
Reductions in benchmark lending rates follow recent stimulus measures
Global soft landing could ameliorate US inflation – research
Study by San Francisco Fed finds rising prices of domestic goods are tied to international factors
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson win Nobel prize in economics
Trio given award for work on role of colonial institutions in shaping long-term prosperity
‘Pooling’ models generates better output gap estimates – paper
Economists say measuring gap in real time is particularly challenging in developing countries
Trade credit can expose firms to FX risk – BIS paper
Currency borrowers partially insulate their partners from shocks, but still pass them along supply chains
Hélène Rey on cracking the code to the global financial cycle
The dollar and financial cycle move together. For the first time, economists think they know why
Energy price rises have stronger effects than decreases – study
Asymmetric effects of gas and crude oil price rises could lead to tighter monetary policy
Fiscal upside, economic downside to EU deficit procedure – study
Fiscal consolidation sometimes led to restrictive pro-cyclical stances, research finds
The hidden dynamics behind China’s BoP ‘errors and omissions’
Marcello Minenna highlights the possible implications an unaccounted-for £30bn has for the PBoC
Close ‘huge’ gender gap to boost GDP – North Macedonia governor
Head of central bank says supporting female entrepreneurs could add $5trn-6trn to global economy
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Cloud and AI ‘dramatically improving’ data use at BoE
UK central bank creates cloud-based platform to streamline processing of its 30,000 data series
High Russian growth ‘extremely unlikely’ – Bank of Finland study
Reports shows labour shortages, capacity constraints are beginning to bite
US auto loan delinquencies focused in new lending – study
Lower credit standards and higher payments, not interest rates, are key contributing factors
Shared EU debt not ‘essential’ for competitiveness boost – Draghi
Former ECB chief also says his proposal for €750bn of extra annual investment is “conservative”
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper seeks ‘canonical Hank model’
Early attempts at heterogeneous agent modelling led to implausible results, authors say
FDI more important than trade in boosting Chinese lending – paper
Banks' activities in emerging economies increase in line with direct investment, say researchers
IMF review of Russia’s economy ‘postponed indefinitely’
Regular Article IV consultation cancelled after international pressure
Book notes: The monetarists: the making of the Chicago monetary tradition, 1927-1960, by George S Tavlas
A fascinating, scholarly and sympathetic account of the Chicago monetary tradition
Rise in UK services inflation curbs bets on BoE rate cut
CPI flat overall, but economists say uptick in core and services numbers likely to make policy-makers pause