Economics
ECB’s monetary policy is taking effect rapidly, says Lane
But chief economist warns tighter financing conditions could cause eurozone contraction
Hank model sheds light on fiscal theory of the price level – paper
Adding heterogeneity allows FTPL models to reflect persistent government deficits, economists find
Taiwan’s central bank calls for wage rises
Report calls for more unionisation after real wages fell in first quarter
World Bank releases country income classifications
Seven countries promoted, while Jordan falls a category due to population growth
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
Fed economists estimate natural rate still at rock bottom
Analysis implies policy rate is firmly in restrictive territory and may not remain high
Book notes: Labor in the age of finance, by Sanford M Jacoby
A fascinating book about the US labour movement’s efforts to use pension fund money to bolster its voice
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
Zambia agrees foreign debt deal
Government agrees to repay faster if IMF assesses its ability to do so has risen
Eurozone carbon tax hike would cause small GDP fall, paper finds
Raising tax to rate consistent with net zero would create only transient inflation, researchers say
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Central banks’ pandemic interventions averaged 6% of GDP
IMF paper finds relief measures were three times bigger than in global financial crisis
AI may demand ‘entirely new’ regulatory approach – IMF’s Gopinath
Deputy managing director says artificial intelligence risks “broad negative effect” on employment
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations down ‘significantly’
ECB data shows median 12 months ahead expectations fell to 4.1% in April
Banknotes: April to June 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Central banks need short-run climate models – BdF governor
Governments may push central banks into ineffective climate action, Sarb governor warns
Eurozone inflation declines sharply in May
Core inflation declines from 5.6% to 5.3%
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
Bernanke and Blanchard reassess causes of inflation surge
Economists who predicted surge misunderstood underlying causes, study finds
‘Robust’ wage growth consistent with disinflation – BIS paper
But firms need to avoid increasing their profit margins, authors find
BoE adjusting main models after forecast misses
Bailey says policy-makers decided to “aim off” main forecast after repeated errors