Economics
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
GSEs not lending as much as they appear to be – NY Fed paper
Much of enterprises’ loans to “real economy” are in fact financed by other types of institution
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path
Bank of Mexico puts growth before prices with rate cut
Economists say decision reflects concerns about possible tariff-induced recession
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
Fed researchers call for new definition of ‘unbanked’
Economists support paper’s more nuanced approach, but caution against dropping current terminology
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Global reset is testing emerging markets – Gopinath
IMF’s deputy managing director says small economies must be ready to respond forcefully to inflation
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’
NGFS adds near-term climate scenario to analytical toolkit
New framework looks at economic impact of environmental changes in next five years
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Falling oil prices bode ill for Russia – Bank of Finland blog
Higher deficits may cause authorities to engage in monetary financing, says Heli Simola
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Almost half of eurozone ready to stop buying US goods – ECB study
Tariffs have triggered significant animosity among consumers, research finds
Natural interest rate driven by productivity growth – research
Population increase also plays important role in determining metric, RBNZ paper finds
Working group minutes: refining forecast models
Central bank economists discuss challenges of tackling errors and integrating new model features
Post-Covid inflation in US mainly driven by demand – study
Author says findings help account for Fed’s difficulty in achieving 2% target