Economics
Central banks’ climate comms influence markets – CEPR column
Researchers draw conclusions after examining more than 35,000 speeches on environmental issues
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
US’s gains from tariffs diminish when countries retaliate – study
Dallas Fed authors say negotiated settlements may be best for all concerned
Trump’s tariffs and the emerging market economies
Steve Kamin says EMEs are likely to escape the worst outcomes from capricious and chaotic trade policy
Trump should not have fired head of stats bureau, say experts
Economists say dismissal undermines trust in official data, along with president’s arguments and democracy itself
Ageing societies limit monetary policy space – BoK study
“Super aged” populations cut growth and inflation, and weaken banking sector, authors say
BIS paper debuts new metric to gauge monetary policy stance
Index captures how size of central bank balance sheet affects borrowing conditions
Markets bet on cuts when Trump threatens Powell – research
Economists link attacks on Fed independence with expectations of policy easing
BNM cuts growth forecast due to tariff uncertainty
However, Malaysia’s central bank says economy is on “strong footing” amid threat of 25% US levy
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers
Central bankers’ speeches good for the euro, but not ECB – study
People’s support for single currency rises as their trust in institution falls, say LSE researchers
US firms face up to $71bn of extra costs from tariffs – study
Authors say additional complexities mean findings are likely to be on the conservative end of costs
BoC survey finds ‘buy Canadian’ trend amid tariff threats
More than half of respondents plan to spend less on US goods and avoid holidaying below 49th parallel
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Wholesale bank funding boosts policy transmission – paper
NBER study highlights trade-offs between reducing systemic risk and facilitating credit flow
Regional trade key for Africa’s growth – BIS bulletin
Closer ties between states will help shield continent from US tariff shocks, researchers say
Tariffs would reduce jobs and real income in US – new study
San Francisco Fed paper says drops in earnings would be unevenly spread
Fed researchers look at age-old problems in US economy
More adults are moving in with parents and retirement levels normalise post-Covid, studies find
Floating-rate credit blunts policy transmission – research
Inflation would have reached target sooner if more firms had borrowed at fixed rates, study finds
Falling immigration weighing on US GDP – Dallas Fed study
Growth in 2025 likely to be around one percentage point lower than was forecast in 2024, say authors
RBA’s deputy governor outlines institution’s research ambitions
Hauser wants bank to become hub for tackling issues such as macro shocks and climate crisis
Economists say rate cuts unlikely to solve China’s deflation woes
CPI grows slightly, but production price index posts largest year-on-year decline since 2023
Nagel pitches policy ideas to kickstart German economy
Bundesbank president says higher European defence spending is “reasonable”
High-emission jobs in US more exposed to shocks – research
Kansas City Fed study says wages in ‘dirty’ industries are rising, but employment growth is not