Economics
CBDCs are subject to ‘trilemma’, ECB paper warns
Research builds on Diamond-Dybvig model to examine possibility of runs on central banks
Cash transfers cause persistent jobs boost in Brazil, research finds
San Fran Fed paper argues previous research neglected effects on informal employment
Bundesbank paper looks at core inflation uncertainty
Higher uncertainty over inflation acts like positive demand shock, researchers find
Bundesbank paper looks at role of carbon emissions disclosures
Obliging firms to increase transparency boosts low-carbon investment, researchers find
Researchers warn US vacancies are ‘untethered’ from other data
Minneapolis Fed economists say US could face “more substantial job losses”
ECB paper examines firms’ response to carbon trading
Policy-makers should use subsidies for green innovation alongside carbon credits, researchers argue
DNB paper examines robustness of monetary policy
Policy must avoid tail risks caused by central banks’ uncertainty over output gap, researchers argue
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
ECB paper examines largest currency areas’ policy spillovers
Researchers study how foreign monetary policy shocks affect US, eurozone and Japan
Leaders are key to adopting technology, RBA study finds
Australian firms use GPT better if executives have tech background or are female, research says
Eurozone inflation affects fiscal policy, ECB paper finds
Authors say there is evidence of “turning point” for inflation’s impact on primary fiscal balances
ECB paper analyses indirect channels of interbank contagion
Eurozone’s interbank market vulnerable to sovereign debt and non-bank sector shocks, research finds
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Economics Benchmarks 2023 report – tentative steps on AI
The benchmarks show some small steps to increase AI use, and shed light on broader reforms to modelling, governance and more
ECB paper attempts to measure spillovers from Fed policy
Authors use asset price data to estimate global effects of FOMC moves
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Higher rates will push up firms’ debt costs gradually, says research
Authors warn that financial vulnerability could stem from higher for longer rates
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
BIS weighs possible shift in global liquidity conditions
Nervy markets struggle to digest rates outlook, as BIS research finds deeper shift may be underway