Economics
US consumer spending resilience hides inequalities – research
Low-income consumers’ credit card debt has risen substantially since 2019
Eurozone unemployment stats may understate slack – research
Authors say they have created an indicator with important monetary policy implications
Politics influences US citizens’ inflation expectations – study
Party affiliations help explain divergence in different surveys’ results, say Cleveland Fed economists
Weak productivity reduced output in Australia by up to 3% – study
RBA paper says decline has “profound implications” for citizens’ welfare
China to continue consumption push with loan interest subsidies
PBoC says plan aligns with government policy to increase consumer spending
Investor sentiment now back at pre-tariff level – BIS study
However, authors warn that accommodative conditions could reverse at any time and trigger disruption
Investment funds procyclical to bond markets – ECB blog
Vehicles sell sovereign debt in times of stress while other investors step in to buy it
Central banks’ climate comms influence markets – CEPR column
Researchers draw conclusions after examining more than 35,000 speeches on environmental issues
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
US’s gains from tariffs diminish when countries retaliate – study
Dallas Fed authors say negotiated settlements may be best for all concerned
Trump’s tariffs and the emerging market economies
Steve Kamin says EMEs are likely to escape the worst outcomes from capricious and chaotic trade policy
Trump should not have fired head of stats bureau, say experts
Economists say dismissal undermines trust in official data, along with president’s arguments and democracy itself
Ageing societies limit monetary policy space – BoK study
“Super aged” populations cut growth and inflation, and weaken banking sector, authors say
BIS paper debuts new metric to gauge monetary policy stance
Index captures how size of central bank balance sheet affects borrowing conditions
Markets bet on cuts when Trump threatens Powell – research
Economists link attacks on Fed independence with expectations of policy easing
BNM cuts growth forecast due to tariff uncertainty
However, Malaysia’s central bank says economy is on “strong footing” amid threat of 25% US levy
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers
Central bankers’ speeches good for the euro, but not ECB – study
People’s support for single currency rises as their trust in institution falls, say LSE researchers
US firms face up to $71bn of extra costs from tariffs – study
Authors say additional complexities mean findings are likely to be on the conservative end of costs
BoC survey finds ‘buy Canadian’ trend amid tariff threats
More than half of respondents plan to spend less on US goods and avoid holidaying below 49th parallel
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Wholesale bank funding boosts policy transmission – paper
NBER study highlights trade-offs between reducing systemic risk and facilitating credit flow
Regional trade key for Africa’s growth – BIS bulletin
Closer ties between states will help shield continent from US tariff shocks, researchers say
Tariffs would reduce jobs and real income in US – new study
San Francisco Fed paper says drops in earnings would be unevenly spread