Economics
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers
Central bankers’ speeches good for the euro, but not ECB – study
People’s support for single currency rises as their trust in institution falls, say LSE researchers
US firms face up to $71bn of extra costs from tariffs – study
Authors say additional complexities mean findings are likely to be on the conservative end of costs
BoC survey finds ‘buy Canadian’ trend amid tariff threats
More than half of respondents plan to spend less on US goods and avoid holidaying below 49th parallel
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Wholesale bank funding boosts policy transmission – paper
NBER study highlights trade-offs between reducing systemic risk and facilitating credit flow
Regional trade key for Africa’s growth – BIS bulletin
Closer ties between states will help shield continent from US tariff shocks, researchers say
Tariffs would reduce jobs and real income in US – new study
San Francisco Fed paper says drops in earnings would be unevenly spread
Fed researchers look at age-old problems in US economy
More adults are moving in with parents and retirement levels normalise post-Covid, studies find
Floating-rate credit blunts policy transmission – research
Inflation would have reached target sooner if more firms had borrowed at fixed rates, study finds
Falling immigration weighing on US GDP – Dallas Fed study
Growth in 2025 likely to be around one percentage point lower than was forecast in 2024, say authors
RBA’s deputy governor outlines institution’s research ambitions
Hauser wants bank to become hub for tackling issues such as macro shocks and climate crisis
Economists say rate cuts unlikely to solve China’s deflation woes
CPI grows slightly, but production price index posts largest year-on-year decline since 2023
Nagel pitches policy ideas to kickstart German economy
Bundesbank president says higher European defence spending is “reasonable”
High-emission jobs in US more exposed to shocks – research
Kansas City Fed study says wages in ‘dirty’ industries are rising, but employment growth is not
Fragmentation could lead to deflation in eurozone – panellist
Chinese and European exports are converging, firms need to decide between resilience and efficiency
Replacing migrant labour will prove costly for US agri – research
Study by Kansas City Fed says farm operators may respond by shifting to foreign production
Closer eurozone integration vital in today’s world – ECB paper
Competition from China and US tariffs cited among reasons for closer co-operation between members
Economists denounce Trump’s ‘bullying’ of Fed chair
Experts also back Powell’s assessment rates would probably be lower were it not for tariffs
IMF disburses additional $500m to Ukraine
Central bank governor welcomes “positive news from Washington” as country passes latest EFF review
Policy to remain restrictive for now, says BoE governor
Bailey says there will be “gradual and careful approach” to any further easing
Rate changes have biggest impact on goods and housing – RBNZ study
Research analyses impact of rate hikes following pandemic-related inflation