Economics
Data prompts positivity from Carney
Economic slowdown in Q1 was not due to the economic climate, BoE governor says
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say
ECB warns EU may be making wrong assumptions on ageing
Eurostat projections more favourable than those of other agencies – ECB bulletin
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
UAE plugs in to IMF’s enhanced data standards
IMF’s chief statistician hails the move as an “important step forward”
Eurozone governments’ post-crisis fiscal policies were ‘self-defeating’
Policies ended up being contractionary, IMF-organised conference hears
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Issuing “foreign-law” debt can cut costs in times of crisis – ECB paper
Eurozone countries’ bonds issued abroad showed major premiums during debt crisis, researchers say
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Spain’s GDP growth set to decelerate – central bank
Waning monetary policy impact, higher oil prices and lower regional expansion behind deceleration
IMF forecasts lower US growth than Fed, Congress and White House
Stimulus expected to yield higher growth in the short term, but the benefits are likely to fade away from 2020
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Central bankers share vision for ‘business as usual’ big data
Panellists offer advice on how to build the infrastructure for good data governance
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
BoE paper models bank runs in general equilibrium
Daisuke Ikeda finds regulations must be comprehensive to prevent risk shifting
BIS authors document ‘significant’ shifts in CDS risks
Credit default swaps market has changed “markedly” since 2008, authors say
Some macro-prudential policies may increase income inequality – DNB paper
Researchers look at data from 69 countries from 2000–13
Good policy makes Phillips curve harder to identify – BoE’s Tenreyro
MPC member argues fears the Phillips curve has disappeared are “largely misplaced”
Banque de France paper sketches policy routes for post-crisis central banks
“New orthodoxy” would see unchanged policy goals, but more freedom to lower interest rates
Dudley says more effort needed in modelling financial factors
“We were nowhere. Now we’re probably at the first or second grade,” says outgoing New York Fed chief
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Trump appears to pre-signal strong jobs data
US jobs report shows large increase in jobs and further drop in unemployment