Economics
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
Paper models monetary policy in a ‘Hank’ framework
Authors combine micro and macro “moments”, finding investment is “crucial” to policy transmission
Spanish governor calls for consolidation and reforms to preserve growth
Hernández de Cos highlights Spain’s stronger export sector after financial crisis
BIS statistics committee to focus on fintech and big data in 2020
Irving Fisher Committee plans to complete its fintech work and update a 2015 survey
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
ECB paper looks at role of uncertainty in central bank comms
Researchers use machine learning to study market reactions to BoE inflation reports
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Ageing populations will keep interest rates low – BdF paper
Housing availability can attenuate decline in rates, authors find
BoE paper: simple communication can backfire
Success of communication is not measured by number of people reached, paper states
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation
Central bank research may be too focused on narrow topics – paper
Network analysis finds many central banks are limited in the scope of their research
Machine learning can produce better credit scores – BIS paper
Fintech firms may be better at predicting default rates, researchers find
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Network effects magnify impact of US monetary policy – BdF paper
Researchers find that impact of US monetary policy is increased by complex cross-border interactions
Claudio Borio says central bank independence is tied to globalisation
Both are underpinned by the same “economic and political zeitgeist”, the BIS economist says
Dutch corporate sector is key source of current account surplus
SMEs save to finance investment due to higher borrowing rates than large companies
‘Green finance’ standards ineffective with smaller firms – BdF paper
Banks lend to smaller firms irrespective of their industries’ polluting records, researcher says
Paper looks at pro-cyclical consumption in Spain
Households reacted strongly to fears of job losses during economic crisis, Bank of Spain says
ECB paper presents new measure for global financial cycle
Researchers say global financial cycle and large capital flow episodes show consistent links
Eurozone bond purchases work as stabilisation tool – BoI paper
Researchers simulate effectiveness of sovereign bond purchases against both real and financial shocks
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
The changing climate has a different impact on growth depending on a country’s normal climate, researchers find
T&T governor calls for productivity reforms
Alvin Hilaire says improvement still required despite recent increase in productivity