Economics
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Global reset is testing emerging markets – Gopinath
IMF’s deputy managing director says small economies must be ready to respond forcefully to inflation
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’
NGFS adds near-term climate scenario to analytical toolkit
New framework looks at economic impact of environmental changes in next five years
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Falling oil prices bode ill for Russia – Bank of Finland blog
Higher deficits may cause authorities to engage in monetary financing, says Heli Simola
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Almost half of eurozone ready to stop buying US goods – ECB study
Tariffs have triggered significant animosity among consumers, research finds
Natural interest rate driven by productivity growth – research
Population increase also plays important role in determining metric, RBNZ paper finds
Working group minutes: refining forecast models
Central bank economists discuss challenges of tackling errors and integrating new model features
Post-Covid inflation in US mainly driven by demand – study
Author says findings help account for Fed’s difficulty in achieving 2% target
Inflation expectations survey flashes warning signs in US
University of Michigan report, cited by Fed officials, says outlook had dropped in tandem with tariffs
Eurozone fiscal policies grew real GDP, dampened inflation – ECB
However, Covid-era policies led to higher deficits and debt in years following pandemic, research finds
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
US Treasury secretary accuses IMF and World Bank of ‘mission creep’
Bessent says organisations should focus on core goals rather than issues such as climate change
Bank lending in Ukraine continues to grow, despite conflict
NBU survey reports demand from businesses and households is up, though loan quality may be slipping
Inflation uncertainty reaching historic high in US – research
Richmond Fed economist says inflation expectations and uncertainty are rising dramatically
CBCS analysis points to pronounced risks of global trade war
Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten says firms should diversify supply chains away from US
Fed officials sound warnings over economic mobility
Vice-chair says it remains core of American Dream, but Philly Fed chief says it is out of reach for many
IMF cuts forecasts as tariffs add to high uncertainty
World economic outlook sours after Trump tariffs