Economics
IMF expects global growth to slow further in 2019
“Significantly higher” and “increasingly intertwined” risks weigh on global growth, Lagarde says
UK lawmakers demand fix for RPI miscalculation
House of Lords says Statistics Authority’s failure to fix error has left many members of public poorer
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Bank of Israel calls on government to reduce deficit
Budget imbalance is forecast to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2019, official target is 2.9%
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
Price shocks worse with poorly anchored inflation expectations – IMF paper
Inflation rises less and falls quicker after shocks when expectations are well anchored, study finds
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
Causes of liquidity traps are ‘crucial’ to policy response – BdF paper
Liquidity traps caused by investor deleveraging may not respond to QE, researchers say
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Google’s data tool has potential for countries with data gaps – IMF research
Authors explore how search queries can be used to track human behaviour
BoE paper outlines DSGE model of financial and real frictions
“Channels of effect” run between financial markets and labour markets, authors find
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
Angola improves data transparency with new hub
Statistics deemed “critical” by the International Monetary Fund will be published in one place
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual