Economics
ECB study highlights firms’ exposure to property downturn
Analysis examines risks to various classes of investor from exposure to commercial real estate
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Global component of inflation surged in pandemic – research
Dallas Fed authors say international factors exert greater influence than they did pre-Covid
ECB could go below r* when setting policy, says Panetta
Bank of Italy governor says eurozone has to return to “normal way of doing monetary policy”
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments
IDB announces organisational restructure
Bank creates new VP role and divisions, and elevates chief economist
Rehn reiterates need for inquiry into demographics, inflation
Europeans need to ready themselves for trade fragmentation, says Bank of Finland governor
PBoC cuts loan prime rates
Reductions in benchmark lending rates follow recent stimulus measures
Global soft landing could ameliorate US inflation – research
Study by San Francisco Fed finds rising prices of domestic goods are tied to international factors
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson win Nobel prize in economics
Trio given award for work on role of colonial institutions in shaping long-term prosperity
‘Pooling’ models generates better output gap estimates – paper
Economists say measuring gap in real time is particularly challenging in developing countries
Trade credit can expose firms to FX risk – BIS paper
Currency borrowers partially insulate their partners from shocks, but still pass them along supply chains
Hélène Rey on cracking the code to the global financial cycle
The dollar and financial cycle move together. For the first time, economists think they know why
Energy price rises have stronger effects than decreases – study
Asymmetric effects of gas and crude oil price rises could lead to tighter monetary policy
Fiscal upside, economic downside to EU deficit procedure – study
Fiscal consolidation sometimes led to restrictive pro-cyclical stances, research finds
The hidden dynamics behind China’s BoP ‘errors and omissions’
Marcello Minenna highlights the possible implications an unaccounted-for £30bn has for the PBoC
Close ‘huge’ gender gap to boost GDP – North Macedonia governor
Head of central bank says supporting female entrepreneurs could add $5trn-6trn to global economy
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Cloud and AI ‘dramatically improving’ data use at BoE
UK central bank creates cloud-based platform to streamline processing of its 30,000 data series
High Russian growth ‘extremely unlikely’ – Bank of Finland study
Reports shows labour shortages, capacity constraints are beginning to bite
US auto loan delinquencies focused in new lending – study
Lower credit standards and higher payments, not interest rates, are key contributing factors