Economics
Book notes: The measure of progress: counting what really matters, by Diane Coyle
The book offers important insights into national income data compilation that are frequently ignored by economists
Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
Jobs, not prices, are main reason for dissent on FOMC – study
Votes show unemployment in presidents’ districts is of greater concern to them than inflation
Trump’s trade policy a ‘wildcard’, says Bostic
Atlanta Fed president says tariffs picture is “unsettled” and calls for patience on monetary policy
BoK paper links real interest rate to demographic shift
Higher life expectancy and lower birth rate exert downward pressure on rates, researchers find
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
Fannie, Freddie … and Donald
Trump’s plan to privatise GSEs may pose systemic risks if not done properly – and Fed may have to intervene, say experts
Trust allows ‘decisive’ policy action – Carstens
BIS general manager says more work is needed to secure trust in financial stability and fiscal policy
Lagarde calls for euro to take on global role
ECB president says EU can be bulwark of stability amid increasing economic upheaval
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
US faces mounting costs if trade war escalates – study
Fed economists monitor effect on asset and consumer goods prices under blanket 25% tariff
Tariffs not the only policy causing uncertainty – Fed presidents
Officials highlight risks from US administration’s approaches to deregulation and immigration
US citizens increasingly reluctant to relocate – study
Richmond Fed research cites multiple causes, including narrowing gender gap and seniors’ wish to stay put
Growth in US CRE loans hits 11-year low – research
St Louis Fed study says developers responding to higher costs and lower demand
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
GSEs not lending as much as they appear to be – NY Fed paper
Much of enterprises’ loans to “real economy” are in fact financed by other types of institution
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path
Bank of Mexico puts growth before prices with rate cut
Economists say decision reflects concerns about possible tariff-induced recession
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
Fed researchers call for new definition of ‘unbanked’
Economists support paper’s more nuanced approach, but caution against dropping current terminology