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Geopolitics in focus
Though inflation dynamics are still seen as the most important topic overall, geopolitical risk saw the biggest change relative to the previous benchmark, from 2024. On a five-point scale, economics departments rated geopolitics 3.9 on average in 2026, a rise of 0.6 percentage points relative to 2024. No other topic rose by more than 0.2pp.
Dedicated data units widely used in economics departments
Teams make use of varied microdata in their work
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios