Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Prediction markets can be as accurate as, if not better than, traditional surveys and financial instruments in forecasting macroeconomic data, research published by the US Federal Reserve has found.
Increasingly popular in recent years, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on whether an event will happen in the future, for example if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates in the next meeting.
In a paper published on February 18, Anthony Diercks, Jared
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