Economics
IMF agrees with Fed on ‘transitory’ inflation
Georgieva says recent inflation spike likely to pass; supports Biden’s fiscal plans
US unemployment rate stable at 5.9%
Little sign of ‘substantial further progress’ FOMC wants to see before taper
Eurozone inflation expected to decline in June
Early estimates suggest inflation fell to 1.9%, from 2% in May
BIS annual report: ‘disaster averted’ but world ‘not out of the woods’
Report weighs up three scenarios for “pandexit”, none of them without drawbacks
ECB paper investigates macro-pru’s impact on inequality
More research is needed on how borrower-based measures affect income inequality, researchers say
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
MAS’s Vincent Loy and Celine Sia on transforming data management
The assistant managing directors explain how uniting business and technology functions is opening up new possibilities for data collection, governance and analytics
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
The IFF China Report 2021
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
Dallas Fed: credit conditions improved for most in 2020
Study of Texas finds communities with more immigrants saw fewer benefits
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
Central banks will need new tools if low rates persist – Rogoff
Governments must clamp down on crypto assets while central banks develop CBDCs, economist says
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Germany facing ‘strong upswing’ – Bundesbank
Central bank revises 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3% to 3.7%
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
Mandatory climate disclosures needed now – senior central bankers
Greening monetary policy operations should also be a priority, policy-makers say
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues
Eurozone inflation reaches target for first time since 2018
Early estimates suggest HICP inflation hit 2% in May
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times