Economics
China’s new lending slumps to lowest since 2009
Analysts believe PBoC has limited room to cut interest rates amid current yuan weakness
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay
US CPI inflation rises slightly
Rising shelter prices cause more than 90% of increase, but SF Fed predicts they will fall
China slips into deflation
Risk of Japan-style deflation exists but can be avoided, analyst says
Shelter inflation set to fall significantly – SF Fed research
“Conservative” model predicts shelter inflation will be 0% in the US by summer 2024
Government employment has not recovered from pandemic – Fed
Low wages could be responsible from 450,000 missing state and local government workers in US
Global growth is stalling: what must be done?
Jagjit Chadha says leaders are failing to make a serious attempt to tackle deepening global problems
BoE enters new phase of data transformation project
Team is now developing options to address challenges identified in phase one
Taiwanese governor flags US sanctions risks
Yang says Taiwan should pay attention to the widening trade surplus with US
Book notes: The crisis of democratic capitalism, by Martin Wolf
A sincere attempt to explain and fix the failing of capitalism in liberal democracies
Inequality rising in the US – Minneapolis Fed report
“Government intervention largely eliminates the cyclicality in inequality at the bottom,” research says
Bernanke to lead BoE review of inflation forecasting
Former Federal Reserve chair will work with Bank of England officials
Algeria is applying to join Brics bank, says president
Country joins Argentina and Honduras on list of applicants
German economy remains stagnant in Q2
Official figures show no growth as outlook for eurozone largest economy’s remains weak
‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues
Non-housing core service prices behaved very differently in 2019 and 2021, researchers say
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
UK inflation falls to 7.9%
Drop exceeds Reuters poll prediction, but headline rate still almost four times target
Machine learning pushes frontier of forecasting
AI techniques are starting to transform central banks’ modelling
PBoC holds key rate amid lacklustre GDP growth
Chinese economy grew 6.3% in second quarter, missing expectations by a full percentage point
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says