Economics
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
IMF team builds new multi-country semi-structural model
G3MOD designed for frequent analysis by central banks of trade and financial links
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Tax avoiders less likely to channel funds through Netherlands – DNB
Annual flow of money to tax havens fell by 75% in just five years, central bank says
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
BIS highlights market ‘uneasiness’ over bond issuance
Claudio Borio says fiscal outlook worldwide is “acutely worrying”
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
ADB approves $500 million loan to Indonesia
Policy-based facility focuses on expanding vulnerable groups’ access to financial services
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
China’s inflation drops to five-month low, despite stimulus
Some analysts expect PBoC to deliver further cuts in rates and RRRs by end of 2025
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
Fed’s latest Beige Book reports modest growth across US
Boston was only branch to report decreased activity since October
Inheritance tax avoidance has fiscal impact – Bank of Spain study
Paper says loopholes led to effective reduction in tax rate of 1.3 percentage points in Catalonia
Share of economics departments with data unit rises
Web scraping and administrative data are top alternative sources for economists
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments