Economics
UK statistics body to launch high-speed indicators
Big data approach should allow faster estimates of economic activity, ONS says
Book notes: Finance and philosophy, by Alex J Pollock
Readable and useful book that provides much food for thought, and should be read widely by economists and policy-makers
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
Researchers estimate two alternatives to DSGE model at ZLB
Dallas Fed paper finds piecewise linear version of the model is an “excellent substitute”
Bank of Mexico stresses risks stemming from state-owned oil company
Pemex provides 20% of Mexico’s fiscal revenues, but is grappling with high debt and falling output
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Stress tests vulnerable to ‘model risk’ – Bundesbank paper
Small changes in models can lead to big differences in results, researchers find
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
Central bank outlook is key to rate decisions’ impact – Bundesbank paper
“Pure policy” and “information” shocks have very different effects on economy, researcher argues
China resorts to fiscal policy to stimulate slowing economy
China says it plans more fiscal stimulus while maintaining prudential monetary policy
BIS book outlines macro-financial policy framework
“Integrated inflation targeting” would combine policies for maximum effect, authors say
ECB paper analyses eurozone’s interest rate swap market
Trading is concentrated around a small number of core participants, researchers find
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Micro variables are best warning signs for smaller Italian banks – BoI
Bank of Italy presents early-warning system for crises in less significant lenders
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Bundesbank paper analyses G10 currencies
Industrialised countries’ currencies differ in their influence on each other, researchers find
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
World is not running out of safe assets – BIS’s McCauley
Supply of safe assets can comfortably meet demand at present, BIS economist says