Economics
Fed releases guidance on third-party services
Fed board warns of possible operational, compliance, financial and strategic risks
Banxico paper probes forced labour’s lingering effects in Ecuador
High forced labour involvement is associated with decreased descendants’ income
Danish central bank warns over interest-only mortgages
Amortisation requirements for “riskiest loans” may reduce housing volatility, report says
Neutral interest rates at pre-pandemic levels, Bank of Canada finds
Nominal neutral interest rates in both countries sit between 2.25% and 3.25%
Oil shocks can be identified in real time, paper says
Bank of Italy researchers’ model identifies demand and supply shocks from daily data
Dollar less popular for services trade than for goods – ECB paper
Large firms prefer sticking to the US currency, research finds
Fed policy has more effect during US recessions, ECB paper finds
Researchers use non-linear methods to examine effects of FOMC shocks
US news has a large impact on global bond yields – research
Bank of Canada research finds US news affects expectations in other countries
Mexico needs reform to fulfil potential – Dallas Fed paper
Anti-trust measures, easier market entry and FDI should aid growth, researchers say
Energy shocks create monetary policy trade-off, paper says
Rate-setters should consider energy prices’ impact on jobless, Bank of Italy paper finds
Generative AI’s impact on inflation unclear – BIS study
Inflation could worsen if people anticipate jump in productivity, authors say
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
European banks less likely to lend to green firms, says ECB paper
Public guarantee loans can help lower-carbon firms access bank credit, research finds
Fed policy-makers disagree over risks
Williams and Goolsbee say policy is restrictive but Logan takes different view
High interest puts pressure on US cattle farms – research
Wildfires and rising input prices are exacerbating factors, Kansas City Fed research says
Central banks need caution in easing policy, IMF says
World Economic Outlook says most indicators still point to soft landing
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
Low growth threatens to reverse living standards – IMF
AI will drive growth but also increase inequalities, fund says