IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Teams from the International Monetary Fund and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) have adapted the Ukrainian central bank’s core models and forecasting framework to reflect the effects of the ongoing war with Russia.
A report published by the IMF on February 11 details the changes made to the NBU’s quarterly projection model to help it cope with “exceptionally high uncertainty” due to Russia’s ongoing aggression. The central bank has been using the updated version, known as QPM+, since early 2025
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