Economics
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Economics Benchmarks 2023 report – tentative steps on AI
The benchmarks show some small steps to increase AI use, and shed light on broader reforms to modelling, governance and more
ECB paper attempts to measure spillovers from Fed policy
Authors use asset price data to estimate global effects of FOMC moves
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Higher rates will push up firms’ debt costs gradually, says research
Authors warn that financial vulnerability could stem from higher for longer rates
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
BIS weighs possible shift in global liquidity conditions
Nervy markets struggle to digest rates outlook, as BIS research finds deeper shift may be underway
MAS bolsters efforts on transition finance
Central bank issues new taxonomy and will work on phasing out coal
Administrative data tops list as alternative data source
Research and forecasting remain key areas of application for central bank economists
PCE inflation falls in the US
Atlanta Fed president says data suggests inflation will only continue to fall
Most heads of research are responsible for sign-off on research
Peer-reviewed papers remain most-used metric for measuring research success
Lower eurozone inflation fuels rate cut speculation
Some analysts expect start of easing cycle earlier in 2024
Central banks average 11 working papers over the past year
Just over a quarter of central banks run research blogs
German inflation falls to 2.3% in November
Falling energy prices lower inflation in the eurozone’s main economy
Central banks prioritise inflation dynamics research
Middle income institutions tend to have much widest research interests
Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
ECB paper analyses impact of Chinese financial shocks
“China shocks” affect global commodities and equities, but less than US equivalents, researchers find
Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables
Private debt, commodity prices and market interest rates rank as laggards
ECB paper studies ESG ratings’ effects on debt costs
Downgrades had only temporary effect on US firms’ bond spreads, researchers find