Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022
A year of intense volatility, set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has posed major challenges to central bank economics departments. Many reported implementing changes to their governance structures, modelling frameworks and data collection. Several institutions, particularly in Europe, said they had adapted models to reflect energy price shocks. Meanwhile, as the Economics Benchmarks enter their third year, some longer-term trends and regularities have started to emerge.
Charts
PhD proportions
On average worldwide, 19% of central bank economists hold PhDs. Typically, PhD economists are more focused on research roles where the additional academic training is especially important, but most economists perform at least some policy work as well.
The proportion rises to 24% at advanced economy central banks and falls to 14% at emerging market central banks.
For the full breakdown, use the benchmarking service’s interactive charts to explore the data.
Economics data
View the full breakdown of responses to the Economics Benchmarks.
Previous years
Economics 2023
Economics 2022
Economics 2021
Economics 2020
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
Administrative data tops list as alternative data source
Research and forecasting remain key areas of application for central bank economists
Economists’ rate of access to centralised data services still below par
Central banks in high-income jurisdictions still have more access
Most heads of research are responsible for sign-off on research
Peer-reviewed papers remain most-used metric for measuring research success
Central banks average 11 working papers over the past year
Just over a quarter of central banks run research blogs
Central banks prioritise inflation dynamics research
Middle income institutions tend to have much widest research interests
Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables
Private debt, commodity prices and market interest rates rank as laggards
Most new economic staff hired as fresh graduates
Recruits from private sector, academia make up smaller portion of new hires
Proportion of central bank economists with PhD rises
Central banks split on funding economic staff with PhD aspirations