Economics
BIS probes ‘exceptional’ FX activity around April shock
Triennial survey would likely have shown less dramatic shift without tariffs, economists find
Public backstop complements private liquidity – BoE paper
Wholesale funding conditions improve even without banks tapping lending facilities, researchers find
Minimum haircuts must be carefully designed – BIS bulletin
Funding- and collateral-driven trades incentivise different repo terms, authors point out
Rise of NBFIs suggests gradualism is best policy – BIS bulletin
Institutions’ uncertain effects on transmission warrant flexibility from central banks, says study
Private liquidity insurance improves stability – BIS study
Yet prospect of central bank interventions can crowd out market, authors say
Lagarde says talk of AI bubble misses ‘bigger picture’
ECB president, a former AI sceptic, now believes not embracing it could ‘jeopardise Europe’s future’
BIS paper explores how central bankers’ lives shape policy
Officials who have experienced high inflation tend to be more hawkish, researcher finds
€25K handouts would not affect labour market – ECB paper
Stimulus packages are effective in raising consumption, researchers argue
France could lose 7% of GDP from climate-linked event – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says even ‘the most ardent’ sceptics will have to accept reality of global warming
‘Imaginations are running wild’ – Nagel on AI
Europe is prepared for a financial downturn, Bundesbank president says
Poorer areas in US have higher food inflation – research
Low-income areas also have less disinflation after shocks pass, Atlanta Fed study finds
Daly debates whether US is reliving 90s boom or 70s inflation
San Francisco Fed chief says getting answer right will help in formulating best policy response
Climate risks still underplayed in credit ratings – ECB blog
Sovereign bonds, utilities and automotive and insurance sector securities most impacted by climate
Tariffs not increasing activity or jobs in US manufacturing – study
Labour supply constraints and increased input costs are holding sector back, say Fed researchers
Cook: US labour market solid, inflation to remain elevated
Governor differs from fellow members of Fed board in first speech since Trump’s attempted dismissal
AI models ‘know more than they say’ – BoE paper
Tapping into ‘hidden states’ of large language models can improve data processing, authors claim
Firms slow to adjust investment targets for inflation – BoJ study
Discount rates are sticky and do not rise with expected increases in price levels, research finds
Swiss price controls do not depress inflation – SNB paper
CPI metric would ‘not have greatly differed’ had it excluded price-controlled goods, study finds
Deep water waves: accelerating, broadening, consequential
Factors that will impact investment returns over the next decades, the interplay between them and their likely impact on investment outcomes
France faces ‘gradual suffocation’ by debt, BdF governor says
Villeroy de Galhau finds notion of being under IMF tutelage 'insulting'
Trade fragmentation not always inflationary – BoE study
Tariffs influence prices based on how sudden the shock is and how demand adjusts, researchers say
PBoC’s language suggests policy shift on yuan – China economist
Central bank drops ‘cautious’ from pronouncements on currency’s internationalisation