Economics
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
US Treasury secretary accuses IMF and World Bank of ‘mission creep’
Bessent says organisations should focus on core goals rather than issues such as climate change
Bank lending in Ukraine continues to grow, despite conflict
NBU survey reports demand from businesses and households is up, though loan quality may be slipping
Inflation uncertainty reaching historic high in US – research
Richmond Fed economist says inflation expectations and uncertainty are rising dramatically
CBCS analysis points to pronounced risks of global trade war
Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten says firms should diversify supply chains away from US
Fed officials sound warnings over economic mobility
Vice-chair says it remains core of American Dream, but Philly Fed chief says it is out of reach for many
IMF cuts forecasts as tariffs add to high uncertainty
World economic outlook sours after Trump tariffs
Researchers build ‘most comprehensive’ global macro database
Long-term data reveals financial crises can harm growth for half a century
Atlanta Fed chief urges caution amid ‘big pause’ in US rates
Bostic compares US central bank to car driving through fog, and says now may be the time to pull over
Bank of Canada holds rates
Governor stresses difficulty in being forward looking amid current uncertainty over US tariffs
Birth determines people’s retirement savings in US – study
US-born seniors have almost three times as much saved as non-citizens, Minneapolis Fed research finds
Disparities in US inflation have policy implications – study
State-level differences in price rises have increased since 2010s, says San Francisco Fed study
SMEs likely to pass on tariff costs to consumers – study
Boston Fed research finds causal link between levies and price rises for consumers
Waller is latest Fed governor to sound warning over tariffs
Board member says effect on growth and jobs likely significant, but inflationary hit could be transitory
Dallas and Minneapolis Fed chiefs sound alarm over tariffs
Logan and Kashkari highlight risks to inflation and employment
EU policy-makers lash out at Trump’s trade policy
Central banks say tariffs will create “many losers” in both Europe and the US
CFOs gloomy about impact of tariffs on US – Atlanta Fed study
Survey shows C-suite’s early worries about trade barriers
Current and former Fed officials lambast Trump tariffs
Bloom Raskin says central bank is now “last bulwark” against measures’ inflationary impact
‘Liberation day’ was not peak uncertainty – Schnabel
EU was “not born to screw the US, but to make Europe thrive”, says ECB board member
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
AI forecasting outperforms traditional methods – study
New approach still only complements existing models but results are promising, say authors
Nabiullina: still Putin’s most effective general
Even Russia’s enemies say its central bank governor has played a bad hand well. But for how much longer?
LatAm policy transmission matches historical norm – paper
Pass-through stronger in consumer and corporate lending, Bank of Spain study finds
Take foreign policy veto away from EU members, says Lagarde
ECB president makes case for qualified majority voting in an apparent rebuff to Hungary