Economics
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
External shocks tighten credit conditions – ECB bulletin
New index finds funding becomes scarce after unexpected changes in economic activity
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Yield curve data can improve estimates of r* – IMF paper
Results suggest r* has risen and help explain ‘soft landings’ after inflation surge
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Fresh graduates’ job market perception worsened by 23% in 2025 – ECB
Research points to slowing growth in knowledge-intensive services to explain otherwise ‘cyclical’ effect
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
New York and Dallas Feds to launch private credit survey
Firms with over $50 million invited to discuss lending standards and monetary policy implications
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
Strained public finances may trigger ‘great repression’ – paper
IMF study of a century of data on financial repression finds the tactic is tempting governments again
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Bolivia and IMF reach $1.9bn financing deal
Three-year agreement comes below country’s expectations of more than $2.5 billion
Eurozone non-labour income used for saving, not spending – paper
Erosion in financial wealth dragged on consumption, Bank of Italy study finds
Bank of Italy used balance sheet as monetary policy tool – study
Bank’s senior economist finds approach proved effective throughout the 20th century
EU defence spending boosts growth before inflation – CNB
Financial markets buy into defence equities well before government money has been spent, study finds
Bolivia nears $2.8bn IMF deal
Minister says country ‘days away’ from agreement on funding to strengthen central bank reserves
Most Australians think higher rates cause inflation – RBA poll
Bank says widespread popular misconceptions illustrate need for improved communications
Moody’s lifts Argentina’s credit rating
Agency says country’s default risk has declined amid fiscal surpluses and falling inflation
Argentina should borrow from international markets – Obstfeld
Economist calls for transition to floating exchange rate with inflation targeting
FX controls have minimal impact on stablecoin dollarisation – study
BIS working paper argues that growing use of crypto assets presents policy challenges for EDMEs
Geopolitical risks cause eurozone banks to tighten credit
ECB’s quarterly survey shows lenders alert to continued instability resulting from Iran war