Economics
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
Credit expansion could dampen growth in EMEs – BIS bulletin
Shift in lending from manufacturing and into real estate is also affecting productivity
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
Lower-paid workers face greatest impact from AI – BIS paper
Risk of core skills being replaced, and jobs being lost, is higher for people on low incomes
Bank closures lead to job cuts at small businesses – Fed study
Research finds that if 25% of local branches close, employment growth falls by four percentage points
Global house prices have ‘almost stabilised’ – BIS
Prices still declining in aggregate, a trend driven mainly by China and the eurozone
Wildfire pollution depresses home values and rents – study
Dallas Fed research finds effects extend to areas “thousands of miles” from where fires take place
Mortgage reforms, surprise rate hikes harm renters – ECB study
Researchers say young people could lose equivalent of 1% of their lifetime consumption
HKMA launches new measures to support struggling SMEs
Authority expands banks’ access to company data and sets up taskforce to handle financing applications
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
BIS publishes centuries of data on central bank balance sheets
New “spliced” series extends back to founding of Sweden’s Riksbank in 17th century
US housing may become increasingly affordable – paper
Authors cite income growth and housing price appreciation that trails inflation as contributory factors
Medium-term US inflation expectations hit record low
However, expert says infrastructure projects could push prices to higher-than-expected levels
UK CPI up less than expected as services inflation falls
Figures may help allay concerns over persistent wage pressures
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”
Ukraine offers creditors deal to restructure its debt
Two-thirds of bondholders will need to agree to 37% haircut in IMF-supported plan
Neural networks are ‘powerful tool’ for non-linear analysis – paper
Machine learning technique highlights downsides to inflation target ranges
Central banks need to avoid ‘overconfidence’, says RBA’s Hauser
Deputy governor warns against 'false prophets' when forecasting with point estimates
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
US’s indirect reliance on Chinese goods rises – NY Fed research
Study finds country’s largest partners are importing increasing amounts of goods from China
Grocery inflation caused by wages and raw goods prices – Fed study
Research comes as FTC launches inquiry into alleged price gouging by US retailers
NY Fed study documents widespread manufacturing slowdown
Firms of all sizes in industries across US are affected, according to research
US productivity may fuel interest rate divergence and dollar strength – Fed study
Business dynamism and financing conditions may explain lack of spillover into other advanced economies