Economics
AI models ‘know more than they say’ – BoE paper
Tapping into ‘hidden states’ of large language models can improve data processing, authors claim
Firms slow to adjust investment targets for inflation – BoJ study
Discount rates are sticky and do not rise with expected increases in price levels, research finds
Swiss price controls do not depress inflation – SNB paper
CPI metric would ‘not have greatly differed’ had it excluded price-controlled goods, study finds
Deep water waves: accelerating, broadening, consequential
Factors that will impact investment returns over the next decades, the interplay between them and their likely impact on investment outcomes
France faces ‘gradual suffocation’ by debt, BdF governor says
Villeroy de Galhau finds notion of being under IMF tutelage 'insulting'
Trade fragmentation not always inflationary – BoE study
Tariffs influence prices based on how sudden the shock is and how demand adjusts, researchers say
PBoC’s language suggests policy shift on yuan – China economist
Central bank drops ‘cautious’ from pronouncements on currency’s internationalisation
US long-term unemployment uptick worries researchers
Minneapolis Fed authors point to ‘large and consequential trend’ upwards
Lagarde calls for EU-wide clean energy strategy
Integrated capital markets to finance affordable and sustainable sources of power, ECB president says
AI, low productivity, and trade in focus at G30
Georgieva, Bailey and Lagarde speak on stretched AI evaluations and distortionary trade policies
PBoC’s Pan calls for ‘meaningful’ IMF quota adjustments
Governor says global economy needs more co-operation amid heightened uncertainty
Top officials weigh impact of trade war and AI
ECB president says impact of US tariffs has been “exact opposite” of expectations
BIS article notes changing effects of dollar weakness on EMEs
Investment channel likely to become more important countervailing force, authors say
Firms in Italy keep mafia closer when credit is tight – paper
Economic shocks make it harder for businesses to refuse cosa nostra’s offers, says central bank report
Nobel committee recognises theories of tech-driven growth
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt share economics prize
RBA says home loan scheme does not heighten risks to markets
Bullock says government’s mortgage programme will not pose additional hazards to financial institutions
Rising temperatures raise inflation expectations – ECB paper
Global warming also leads to greater pessimism about growth, research finds
Asean+3 central banks have space to buffer shocks – Amro report
Study says institutions are capable of more accommodative policy, should external circumstances demand it
Bostic: firms tell me they’re eager to replace humans with AI
Atlanta Fed chief says technology will have a ‘unique’ impact on workers at all skill levels
National statistics need reform to capture AI impact – study
Official data tends to lack the granularity to capture transformative effects of AI, authors say
NBER paper suggests ‘dot plot’ for financial conditions
Producing forward guidance of asset prices will improve central bank communications, economists say
Uncertainty over economic policy throttles lending – ECB study
Authors point to recent developments in US, but say sources of uncertainty can come from anywhere
News coverage drove 2023 US bank runs – NY Fed study
Equity investors only became attuned to lenders’ weak fundamentals after mass panic began