Economics
Bolivia nears $2.8bn IMF deal
Minister says country ‘days away’ from agreement on funding to strengthen central bank reserves
Most Australians think higher rates cause inflation – RBA poll
Bank says widespread popular misconceptions illustrate need for improved communications
Moody’s lifts Argentina’s credit rating
Agency says country’s default risk has declined amid fiscal surpluses and falling inflation
Argentina should borrow from international markets – Obstfeld
Economist calls for transition to floating exchange rate with inflation targeting
FX controls have minimal impact on stablecoin dollarisation – study
BIS working paper argues that growing use of crypto assets presents policy challenges for EDMEs
Geopolitical risks cause eurozone banks to tighten credit
ECB’s quarterly survey shows lenders alert to continued instability resulting from Iran war
Tajikistan keeps inflation on target after lowering band
Central bank reports 4.1% price growth in H1, 50bp higher than in first half of last year
Software may contain bugs for private credit – BIS paper
Bulletin says disruption from AI could cause outage for lenders heavily invested in sector
Nine out of 10 Japanese people see prices rising
BoJ survey shows around half of respondents expect economic slowdown in a year’s time
Unclear whether AI will reduce or heighten inequality – Barr
Fed governor’s caution contrasts with Warsh’s more bullish stance
Race for investment could turn AI boom into bust – BIS study
Paper warns of fragility through overcommitment and circular financing
NY Fed study points to more tariff-related inflation in US
Survey shows many firms plan to pass on further costs to customers over coming months
Policy transmission weaker in poorer countries – paper
Authors say disconnect may reflect limited financial inclusion and prevalence of informal credit
Romania and Poland continue to hold rates
Central banks exercise caution as inflation and geopolitical risk cloud outlook
Data-driven approach needed to assess impact of AI – Lane
ECB board member sets out multiple unknowns as technology reshapes macroeconomic landscape
Financial repression delivers stopgap funding without inflation risk – paper
NBER paper argues recent macro-prudential mandates are effectively forms of repression
Cheap Chinese imports keep eurozone goods inflation down
Paper says prices may stay low because of excess capacity, weak Chinese demand and yuan
Geopolitics is driving monetary policy – panel
ECB’s Vujčić points to impact of US equities, while BoE’s Taylor says uncertainty justifies rates hold
Forecasters look to complexity for better results
Central banks are developing models with production networks, non-linearities and heterogeneity
Number of US jobs at risk of AI substitution is falling – ECB study
New technology yet to have an impact on wage growth, research finds
IMF’s Gourinchas argues ‘middle powers’ can heal global trade
Co-operation by mid-sized economies could bring hegemons to table, chief economist says
‘Glory days’ of central banking may be behind us – Goodhart
Former BoE MPC member warns central banks will struggle to combat inflation given fiscal pressures
UK still paying EU ‘divorce bill’– National Bank of Belgium blog
Research shows cumulative cost of Brexit amounts to six to eight percentage points of GDP
Markets react more to macro news in uncertain times – study
Monetary policy uncertainty amplifies bond yields’ response to data releases, BIS paper says