Economics
Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel
Experts at ECB conference say political upheaval now a greater concern than price growth
‘Technology intensity’ worsens employment outcomes – study
Authors say jobs more likely to be lost in sectors with large prior investments in robotics and IT
Dancing between raindrops: tackling an Iran-related supply shock
Comms will be critical as central banks face yet another global shock, says Jagjit Chadha
Iran conflict could drive global inflation higher – IMF chief
Georgieva urges policy-makers to think ‘the unthinkable and prepare for it’
R* has increased globally since pandemic – NY Fed research
Higher neutral rates show government bonds might not be as liquid and safe as before, economists say
Delayed hikes lessened inflation’s distributional effects – study
Poorer households would have suffered more if ECB began tightening straight after pandemic
High tariff regime in the US is ‘here to stay’ – BoE’s Taylor
Impact on trade flows and pricing will take years to play out, MPC member says
US firms dominate entire AI supply chains – BIS bulletin
Tech giants operate across all layers, including designing chips and running clouds, study says
Europe’s strength in numbers could mitigate risks, says Panetta
Italian governor calls for progress on capital markets union to help guard against geopolitical threats
Lower reserves share not a sign of dollar’s decline – paper
Growth of FX coffers in countries holding fewer greenbacks dilutes currency’s share, NBER study finds
Shipping congestion drives up inflation – IMF paper
Study of tracking data shows delays at ports are reflected in headline inflation
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Dallas Fed researcher cautions against expansionary policy
Study of US in the 1970s says oil shocks were not primary driver of inflation
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Net zero transition could boost productivity – BoE paper
Impact of carbon tax depends partly on spillovers from green technology, economists say
IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Price change frequency upped inflation post-Covid – study
Size of individual changes had same effect on overall prices as during normal times, ECB paper finds
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
BIS paper models fiscal influence on monetary policy
Researchers propose alternative mechanism to fiscal theory of the price level
Global liquidity surge continuing, BIS figures show
Lending to non-banks continues to lead cross-border credit expansion
EU cannot fully disconnect from US, say Nagel and Kocher
German and Austrian governors say bloc can take steps to gain more sovereignty