Economics
Economic security requires alliances, not autarky – panel
Former RBA policy-maker says countries outside US need strong trade links in uncertain times
‘There is agency’: experts say countries can deal with tariffs
‘Bad behaviour’ by US and China has brought many other nations together, speakers say
GCC will ride out economic headwinds – panel
Experts at IMF meetings highlight Gulf states’ dynamism, notwithstanding war’s impact on Mena region
‘Plaza accord 2.0’ will not fix global imbalances – IMF panel
But getting China and US to implement other necessary remedies will be challenging, speakers say
EU-US relations ‘broken in a deep way’ by Trump 2.0 – Blanchard
Economist says 27-strong bloc must not take sides with Beijing or Washington
Algorithmic pricing not yet a ‘menace’ to inflation – BoE study
Dynamic and personalised pricing may upend CPI measurements and expectations, research says
Tariffs will do little to change trade imbalance – IMF
Surplus and deficit countries must pursue structural polices to rebalance global economy, fund says
Central banks face ‘double whammy’ from Iran war
Policy-makers will have to tackle impact of higher inflation and greater fiscal stimulus
NY Fed blog explores two sides of monetary policy
Short-term rates and balance sheet size both strongly affect money market conditions, study finds
Exporters to US paying only 5% of Trump’s tariffs – ECB research
Data shows stateside consumers bearing brunt of costs from levies on imports
Dollar still ‘special’ but Treasuries losing shine – NBER paper
Authors show ‘strong divergence’ between global roles of greenback and US government bonds
Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel
Experts at ECB conference say political upheaval now a greater concern than price growth
‘Rolling windows’ method may help evaluate big data forecasts
Barbara Rossi presents new approach at ECB’s AI conference
BIS study uncovers credit crunch driven by geopolitics
Paper finds that lending recovers more slowly than trade following shock events
ECB expects growth, even in ‘most severe scenarios’ – de Guindos
Outgoing vice-president downplays chances of Lagarde finishing her term early
‘Technology intensity’ worsens employment outcomes – study
Authors say jobs more likely to be lost in sectors with large prior investments in robotics and IT
Dancing between raindrops: tackling an Iran-related supply shock
Comms will be critical as central banks face yet another global shock, says Jagjit Chadha
Iran conflict could drive global inflation higher – IMF chief
Georgieva urges policy-makers to think ‘the unthinkable and prepare for it’
R* has increased globally since pandemic – NY Fed research
Higher neutral rates show government bonds might not be as liquid and safe as before, economists say
Delayed hikes lessened inflation’s distributional effects – study
Poorer households would have suffered more if ECB began tightening straight after pandemic
High tariff regime in the US is ‘here to stay’ – BoE’s Taylor
Impact on trade flows and pricing will take years to play out, MPC member says