Economics
BoE’s new forecast evaluation unpacks causes of errors
Global shocks and wage growth led bank to underestimate inflation persistence
Trade liberalisation with China increased US wages – study
Fed researchers find ‘long-suspected’ benefits for labour market
Paper calls for ’systematic monitoring’ of cyber risks
Non-financial firms’ credit risk indicators not accounting for ‘sharp increase’ in incidents, say authors
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Ricardian equivalence does not hold in reality, study finds
Researchers say consumers do not fully plan ahead for expected tax liabilities
Japanese citizens expect prices to keep rising in 2026
BoJ says it will continue to hike rates if 2% inflation target is met
Trade fragmentation still favours west over east – BdF study
Authors says US-led bloc better placed to win over neutral states than China-aligned grouping
US tariffs unlikely to halt progress on global trade – BoE’s Taylor
UK inflation expected to fall in near term due to trade diversion, MPC member says
Private credit to grow in Europe in 2026 – S&P
Basel implementation and diversification away from US point to more activity, analysts say
Eurozone food inflation to ease in 2026 – ECB bulletin
Sticky prices have moderated in recent months and should decline further in 2026, economists say
BoE paper offers method to build narrative around forecasts
Process could support use of SVAR models in monetary policy process
Broader view of debt sustainability is needed – NBER paper
Government debt is not necessarily at historical highs, authors say
US ‘bearing large share’ of tariff costs – NBER paper
Authors find pass-through is nearly 100% and is reshaping how country trades
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
EMs gain less from GenAI adoption than AEs – BIS study
Service economies with strong digital and legal frameworks best placed to benefit from AI
Dollarisation tends to come in waves – Fed researchers
Authors say the euro once may have been a rival to the dollar
Mutual funds amplify FX sensitivity to capital flows – study
Investment in Swiss bonds increasingly linked to franc’s value, SNB paper finds
NBFIs grew twice as fast as banks in 2024, FSB finds
Annual report highlights strong growth in investment funds but flags lack of data on private credit
Water scarcity threatens economies, IMF and BIS warn
Studies say impacts on growth, inflation, fiscal policy and balance of payments are likely to worsen
Manufacturing will not be jobs engine in US – St Louis Fed study
Authors say periods of rising productivity in sector have been accompanied by drops in employment