Economics
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
Keep liquidity provision loose during shocks – ECB study
Central banks can lessen harm to economy by reducing liquidity premium, say authors
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector, but 40% still do not model the financial side of the economy
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
US rate hikes ‘lock in’ homeowners – Fed study
Tighter monetary policy raises house prices and reduces churn, research finds
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Savings, not debt, can finance EU growth – Villeroy de Galhau
Governments need “strategic pivot” to meet structural challenges, says BdF governor
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
As a population ages, impact of deflation worsens – BoJ study
Research says falling prices inflict greatest harm on young people
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Canada’s GDP revisions ‘raise questions over monetary policy’
However, experts disagree on whether central bank’s modelling was flawed and if it cut rates too quickly