Economics
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
BIS weighs possible shift in global liquidity conditions
Nervy markets struggle to digest rates outlook, as BIS research finds deeper shift may be underway
MAS bolsters efforts on transition finance
Central bank issues new taxonomy and will work on phasing out coal
Administrative data tops list as alternative data source
Research and forecasting remain key areas of application for central bank economists
PCE inflation falls in the US
Atlanta Fed president says data suggests inflation will only continue to fall
Most heads of research are responsible for sign-off on research
Peer-reviewed papers remain most-used metric for measuring research success
Lower eurozone inflation fuels rate cut speculation
Some analysts expect start of easing cycle earlier in 2024
Central banks average 11 working papers over the past year
Just over a quarter of central banks run research blogs
German inflation falls to 2.3% in November
Falling energy prices lower inflation in the eurozone’s main economy
Central banks prioritise inflation dynamics research
Middle income institutions tend to have much widest research interests
Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
ECB paper analyses impact of Chinese financial shocks
“China shocks” affect global commodities and equities, but less than US equivalents, researchers find
Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables
Private debt, commodity prices and market interest rates rank as laggards
ECB paper studies ESG ratings’ effects on debt costs
Downgrades had only temporary effect on US firms’ bond spreads, researchers find
Japanese inflation increases to 3.3% in October
Food, energy and services inflation boost price increases
Most new economic staff hired as fresh graduates
Recruits from private sector, academia make up smaller portion of new hires
Proportion of central bank economists with PhD rises
Central banks split on funding economic staff with PhD aspirations
BIS unveils new data portal
Bank will hold training courses for journalists wishing to access statistics
Median salary of central bank economists rises as inflation bites
Income remains less aligned with GDP per capita of participating countries
Economics department staff total just over 70 on average
Average number of research economists remains smaller than policy economists
AI adoption still limited among central bank economists
High income countries report slightly higher impact but most say practical use of AI is minimal