Economics
‘Brace, brace’: quants say soft landing is unlikely
Investors should prepare for sticky inflation and volatile asset prices as central banks grapple with turning rates cycle
Non-defence R&D spending ‘boosts US productivity’
Dallas Fed researchers find causal link between public expenditure on civilian projects and GDP
Monetary tightening can reduce innovation, says RBA paper
Higher rates affect small Australian firms more than large ones, research finds
Racial wealth disparities in US ‘have accelerated post-Covid’
Research attributes gap to kinds of assets typically held by white, Black and Hispanic investors
Consumer prices in China fall at fastest pace since 2009
Central bank says it expects modest rebound
Hurdles to hiring migrants ‘jeopardise US tech start-ups’
Frictions caused by visa programme ‘protect unproductive firms’, says Atlanta Fed paper
China ‘gradually decreasing import dependence’
However, Fed research says reliance on export markets precludes any de-linking from global economy
ECB publishes wholesale credit markets survey
No tightening in terms for euro-denominated securities, central bank finds
Chinese growth likely to slow to 3.5% by 2028, says IMF
State officials reject institution’s findings, claiming economic trajectory is positive and risks manageable
US government-sponsored mortgage securities ‘amplify crises’
Paper says dynamic between lenders and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac not conducive to financial stability
US rural economies are ‘main losers from employment trends’
Fed research says automation and globalisation have militated against job creation in remote areas
ECB paper examines household inflation differences
French and German consumer data shows heterogeneity is driven by product choice, research finds
BoJ policy-makers signal end to negative rates
Summary of meeting shows board members see higher chances of achieving virtuous wage-price spiral
Spike in oil prices ‘could boost South Korean economy’
BoK researchers say a rise driven by higher global economic activity might boost domestic growth
DSGE models should include housing supply, ECB paper argues
Author says adding financial sector and new houses improves forecasting accuracy
Strong consumer spending ‘does not preclude US recession’
Dallas Fed research argues that declines in residential investment are a better bellwether for a downturn
China’s central bank to set up new credit market department
Unit will be tasked with guiding banks’ lending support for key areas of finance
PBoC and HKMA strengthen financial ties
Hong Kong to accept onshore bonds as collateral for RMB funds, as PBoC looks to open up repo market
Faster deposit flows will affect bank runs, ECB paper says
Bindseil and Senner say several factors are increasing size and speed of deposit runs
PBoC announces biggest cut in banks’ reserve ratios for two years
Governor says 50bp reduction will free up 1 trillion yuan into financial system
Wage growth ‘has not impacted US inflation’, says Boston Fed
Study finds pay still has some way to go before reaching a level that would affect consumer prices
Lower immigration affecting US household spending power
Low immigration has contributed to increased prices of consumer goods, argues Atlanta Fed
Monetary policy affects insurers’ balance sheets, ECB paper finds
Eurozone insurance firms increase asset holdings and risk-taking if policy loosens, researchers say