Economics
Global economy will be ‘anaemic’ – IMF
Inflation falling, but central banks will only reach targets over 2024 and 2025
Youth disconnect could create ‘less-skilled workforce’ – Dallas Fed
Declining labour force participation is detaching younger people from work, authors find
Kansas City Fed warns slow wage growth could spur debt problems
Subprime auto debt back above pre-pandemic levels and consumer debt at highest level ever
IMF research emphasises link between inflation and fiscal policy
Authors call for spending cuts and large, targeted wealth transfers to the poor
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature
IMF approves $15.6 billion for Ukraine
Fund calls wartime loan “unprecedented” and risky
Eurozone headline inflation drops sharply
But core figure remains high as service price rises persist
BIS paper warns of worsening fiscal and monetary trade-offs
Many governments have sought to shield consumers from price rises, at a high budgetary cost
Banknotes: January to March 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Sarb deputy warns on growth prospects
Cassim says economy is “remarkable for the wrong reasons”
Layoffs higher in US tech industry – St Louis Fed
Data shows layoffs in “information industry” were up over 65% compared with April 2022
Blanchard and Summers say higher inflation likely to persist
Veteran economists say structural factors are likely to push up neutral rate and inflation
China sets modest growth target ahead of leadership reshuffle
Outgoing premier Li calls for accommodative policy and warns of property sector risks
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: The next age of uncertainty, by Stephen Poloz
This book provides a well-informed and well-argued view about our economic future
Book notes: A guide to good money, by Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle
The authors make some good points even if one does not agree with this full-bodied attack on Keynesian economics and inflation targeting
Agent-based models shed light on CBDC dynamics
Take-up could be as high as 25% of total money, but depends on design choices, IMF research finds
BoE’s Mann challenges idea of ‘long and variable lags’
MPC member says changing transmission of policy in UK may demand more tightening
Macro-pru tightening can cause ‘risk leakages’, ECB paper finds
Policy-makers should tighten household limits early in the credit cycle, researchers say
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – presentation
Economics specialist Daniel Hinge discusses year-on-year trends, forecasting choices and research