Economics
Global natural rates could be rising, SNB governor says
Jordan says Swiss central bank’s approach allows it to deal with uncertainty over r*
Acemoglu questions productivity benefits of AI
MIT economist finds weak productivity gains from AI and says benefits may be undermined by costs
Twenty years on, Visegrád states are converging to rest of the EU
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have undergone economic transformation, CNB finds
Bank of Canada conducts large-scale survey of indigenous-owned firms
Indigenous firms have higher inflation expectations and use alternative funding sources
ECB paper recommends central fiscal instrument
Governments’ ability to delay fiscal consolidation should be limited, researchers argue
Can US policy choices explain economic divergence?
NIESR’s Ahmet Kaya finds US fiscal stimulus may have masked standard economic relationships, but economic gravity may soon reassert itself
What is forecasting for? Bernanke and the future of BoE projections
The Bernanke review pushes central banks to rethink the role of forecasts in policy-making, but it also shies away from solving a key paradox in the process
Global supply chains undergoing “great reallocation”, expert says
Mexico is biggest winner from US trade shift, economist tells Atlanta Fed conference
ECB paper uses RCT data on inflation expectations
Consumers’ level of attention is determined by economic environment, research finds
Hungarian minister calls central bank ‘unco-operative’
MNB’s critique of government strategy draws official’s rebuke
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’
Credit rating agency failures continue despite EU reforms, paper finds
Bond issuers are still “shopping” for good ratings, ECB paper says
Fed paper looks at US opioids crisis
Banks are causing credit contraction in worst-affected communities, researchers say
QE helped smooth sovereign bond yields, ECB paper finds
Eurosystem’s asset purchases helped reduce effect of “auction cycle”, researcher says
Neutral interest rate likely to rise, paper finds
Several factors are pushing rate upwards, Bank of Canada researchers say
Uneven US innovation could increase inequality – research
St Louis Fed economist documents rising patent concentration by area
Fed releases guidance on third-party services
Fed board warns of possible operational, compliance, financial and strategic risks
Banxico paper probes forced labour’s lingering effects in Ecuador
High forced labour involvement is associated with decreased descendants’ income
Danish central bank warns over interest-only mortgages
Amortisation requirements for “riskiest loans” may reduce housing volatility, report says
Neutral interest rates at pre-pandemic levels, Bank of Canada finds
Nominal neutral interest rates in both countries sit between 2.25% and 3.25%
Oil shocks can be identified in real time, paper says
Bank of Italy researchers’ model identifies demand and supply shocks from daily data
Dollar less popular for services trade than for goods – ECB paper
Large firms prefer sticking to the US currency, research finds
Fed policy has more effect during US recessions, ECB paper finds
Researchers use non-linear methods to examine effects of FOMC shocks
US news has a large impact on global bond yields – research
Bank of Canada research finds US news affects expectations in other countries