Economic modelling
Book notes: The measure of progress: counting what really matters, by Diane Coyle
The book offers important insights into national income data compilation that are frequently ignored by economists, says Geoffrey Wood
AI forecasting outperforms traditional methods – study
New approach still only complements existing models but results are promising, say authors
BoE museum showcases virtual reality Phillips machine
VR version of Moniac brings 144kg hydraulic economic model to wider audience
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
Branching paths: the Czech National Bank’s many modelling options
Three external reviews each recommended a different combination of models. The CNB now faces tough design choices, and must also decide how to upgrade its economic research
AI can solve more complex economic models – BIS paper
Neural networks help economists solve and estimate non-linear heterogeneous agent models
IMF team builds new multi-country semi-structural model
G3MOD designed for frequent analysis by central banks of trade and financial links
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper seeks ‘canonical Hank model’
Early attempts at heterogeneous agent modelling led to implausible results, authors say
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report