Economic modelling
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Profit now key driver of inflation, BIS research finds
Recent surge in prices “fundamentally different” to that of the 1970s
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Remittances to Mexico reach record high, says Dallas Fed
Researchers say strong US construction sector fuels funds transfers
FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper
Both staff and FOMC members 'projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer
Canadian official says mortgage rates not big cause of inflation
Kozicki says taking home loans out would make only small dent in core reading
Colombian research offers advice on modelling Covid-19 shock
Pandemic is challenging to model due to its transitory impact, authors say
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Europe unlikely to see major gas shortage this winter – research
Risks remain if alternative sources of natural gas falter, says Fed economist
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay