Economic modelling
Remittances to Mexico reach record high, says Dallas Fed
Researchers say strong US construction sector fuels funds transfers
FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper
Both staff and FOMC members' projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer
Canadian official says mortgage rates not big cause of inflation
Kozicki says taking home loans out would make small dent in core reading
Colombian research offers advice on modelling Covid-19 shock
Pandemic is challenging to model due to its transitory impact, authors say
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Europe unlikely to see major gas shortage this winter – research
Risks remain if alternative sources of natural gas falter, says Fed economist
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay
Bernanke to lead BoE review of inflation forecasting
Former Federal Reserve chair will work with Bank of England officials
‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues
Non-housing core service prices behaved very differently in 2019 and 2021, researchers say
ECB’s monetary policy is taking effect rapidly, says Lane
But chief economist warns tighter financing conditions could cause eurozone contraction
Hank model sheds light on fiscal theory of the price level – paper
Adding heterogeneity allows FTPL models to reflect persistent government deficits, economists find
Central banks need short-run climate models – BdF governor
Governments may push central banks into ineffective climate action, Sarb governor warns
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates
BoE adjusting main models after forecast misses
Bailey says policy-makers decided to “aim off” main forecast after repeated errors
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Agent-based models shed light on CBDC dynamics
Take-up could be as high as 25% of total money, but depends on design choices, IMF research finds
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented shocks creates major challenges for forecasters, the Nobel prize-winning economist says
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
IMF paper offers ‘fear-based theory’ of economy
Central banks risk distorting the economy if they don’t move interest rates to offset “fear cycle”
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign
Modelling the short-term economic impacts of climate change
Econometric models can give central banks a clearer picture of short-term climate impacts, says Stephen Millard