Data
Economists use payments data to build high-speed indicator
Team says transaction-based metric gives quick insight into consumer spending
Machine learning can produce better forecasts – RBI paper
ML tends to outperform standard models, but combining forecasts is best, authors say
Bank of Israel research derives growth estimate from survey data
Researchers construct real-time indicator that can be produced earlier than nowcasts
AI can help predict consumer defaults – NBER paper
Researchers say “deep learning” could be useful in designing macro-prudential policies
Kansas Fed develops real-time GDP tracker
The tracker builds on previous work by combining two forecast models
Bundesbank sees risk of recession in Q3
Economic report paints bleak picture as eurozone inflation continues slide
‘Animal spirits’ are real, DNB paper says
Researchers analyse data on household spending and consumer confidence
Eurozone bank productivity growth fell over last decade – ECB paper
Researchers try to quantify eurozone banks’ total factor productivity growth
Institutional approaches are key factor in mortgage defaults – BoE paper
European countries show major differences in mortgage default factors, researchers find
Dallas Fed paper looks at impact of tech shocks
Researchers exploit forecast data for “more precise” identification of technology shocks
Non-banks attracting more global liquidity than banks for first time
In Q1, more liquidity flowed to non-banks than banks for the first time in 40 years of BIS data
Two-thirds of countries failing to meet global standards on inflation – IMF paper
More than half the world has not updated CPI weighting in the last five years, researchers find
Surge in cross-border credit led by non-banks
Cross-border claims rise at fastest rate since the global crisis, BIS figures show
Bank of Spain launches data lab for research
Economists now have access to micro-data on the country’s non-financial firms
Hyperinflation threatens to return to Zimbabwe
Official inflation almost doubles as economic threats remain
RBI set to benefit from granular data warehouse – Das
Central bank’s new “data access lab” will support innovative research, governor says
El Salvador central bank launches statistics app
Central bank says app designed to improve accessibility of economic data
Joint project unveils dataset stretching back to 1086
BoE and statistics agencies publish vast collection of historical data
Tone of PBoC moves markets, says Bank of Finland paper
Markets are effectively using PBoC speeches as ‘monetary policy instrument’, says researcher
Namibia’s central bank slashes economic growth forecast
Bank of Namibia reduces predicted GDP growth to just 0.3%
IMF’s Adrian says central banks should disclose climate risk exposure
Data gaps make it harder for central banks to set appropriate climate stress tests, he says
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
Big data should help solve problems ‘on the ground’ – Ireland’s Kearns
Central banks need to do more than simply invest in technology and analytics, says Kearns
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality