Macroeconomics
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
Israel’s Flug calls for higher-quality labour market
Country is close to full employment but must do more to improve labour market conditions, governor says
BIS economists find frictions in banks’ dollar funding
Authors investigate wide divergence in the business models of European and Japanese banks
Stock imbalances can stabilise or destabilise – BIS paper
Asymmetry implies burden of adjustment tends to fall on deficit countries
RBI paper finds complexity in exchange rate pass-through
Authors challenge standard view that exchange rates have a “linear and symmetric” impact
BoE not to blame for gold standard-era crises in US – paper
Bank of England not responsible for “causing or aggravating” crises in the US, author finds
Intellectual property investment fuelling growth in Australia – Lowe
RBA governor says lack of growth in “tangible assets” is turning investment towards IT
Yield curve inversion still tends to signal trouble ahead – Fed economists
The term spread has a “strikingly accurate record” for forecasting recessions, say researchers
Dudley goes against Trump’s protectionist line
New York Fed president criticises protectionism as Donald Trump steps up rhetoric
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon
Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research
San Francisco Fed article says weak recovery in the US due to long-running factors
World does not have to be ‘hostage’ to technology – Wilkins
Finding a way to control the market power of tech giants will be important, the Bank of Canada deputy says
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Cœuré: ‘three lines of defence’ needed to protect ECB
Without reforms, ECB may end up having to “test the limits of its mandate”
Misinterpreting commodity price swings can be damaging – BIS paper
Whether movements are down to supply shocks or changes in global demand matters for policy
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances
ESM hails Greece’s progress in third bailout
The country should exit the programme in August as growth accelerates and bond yields fall
Menon warns of Singapore's ‘demographic trilemma’
MAS chief says Singapore “must accept” slower growth of the labour force
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Panellists urge German government to prioritise investment spending
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
BoE’s Tenreyro sees hopeful signs for UK productivity
Many factors dragging on productivity may soon start to fade, MPC member says