Macroeconomics
Strong dollar harms EME bond market liquidity – BIS paper
Dealer intermediation vulnerable to both “original sin” and “original sin redux”
UK inflation falls more than BoE had expected
Housing prices fall year on year for first time since 2012, while energy prices also decline
UK financial institutions are ‘global public good’, says Bailey
BoE governor warns against fragmentation, criticises Brexit and discounts rate cuts
China slides back into deflation
Falling pork prices are a major drag on consumer prices
Covid-era fiscal policy helped fuel inflation, researchers say
Robert Barro and Francesco Bianchi say their evidence supports fiscal theory of the price level
Sweden faces lower employment and labour force growth
Integration of foreign-born citizens is key to keep expanding labour force, says Riksbank research
Asian bond spreads with US not widening, BIS research finds
Central banks’ actions have decoupled EME bonds from stronger dollar, researchers say
China boosts support for economy with new debt issuance
The central government will issue one trillion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter
Firms’ pricing power was driver of generalised inflation, paper finds
Supply shocks gave firms cover to raise prices without losing sales, authors find
Default fears loom over Country Garden
The Chinese developer reportedly missed a final deadline to repay $15.4 million in interest
Riksbank’s Flodén says inflationary pressures are too high
Weak krona may explain higher price increases, says deputy governor
UK researchers propose 3% inflation target and negative rates
Inflation stalls at 6.7% in September, the same figure as in August
Central banks must brace for another energy shock
Conflict between Israel and Hamas adds to the risk of inflation and recession, says Paul Mortimer-Lee
Paper explores shifting drivers of Beveridge curve
Authors say job openings and unemployment data are not enough to judge prospects of a soft landing
Paper offers new method for measuring natural rate
Authors say use of natural experiment leads to much smaller errors
EME officials predict volatility from ‘higher for longer’ rates
Fed’s policy set to worsen environment, say officials from Peru, Colombia and South Africa
Inflation set to remain high into 2025, IMF warns
Soft landing looks more likely but growth is “limping along”, says Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Canadian deputy governor warns of repeating pricing pressures
Vincent argues supply shocks, technology and consolidation may make raising prices easier
Germany needs tighter fiscal policy, Nagel says
EU Stability and Growth Pact should have stricter fiscal rules, Bundesbank president argues
Monetary policy tops US CFOs’ concerns
Survey finds high rates curtailing spending in 40% of firms
‘Illiquid lemon markets’ can worsen crises – NBER paper
Authors extend George Akerlof’s Nobel prize-winning work to the macroeconomy
OECD says interest rates should stay high ‘until well into 2024’
Report says monetary policy needs to stay tight until underlying inflationary pressures are lowered
China to ease mortgage rules and cut banks’ FX reserve ratio
Moves come on top of authorities’ recent support measures for property sector and stock market
PBoC pledges more financial support for private firms
Governor Pan Gongsheng says authorities need to unblock funding channels for private firms