Macroeconomics
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Putting modern monetary theory to the test
Sayuri Shirai asks whether MMT might hold the solution to Japan’s stagnation
Finnish researchers propose new crisis indicator
Bank of Finland paper compares short term credit-to-GDP ratio to "Basel gap"
Barbados central bank hopeful for international business rebound
Sector suffered after sanctions imposed due to country’s low tax rates
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
US labour force participation driven by fewer outflows – San Fran Fed researcher
Hot economy could be making workers less likely to leave labour force, Regis Barnichon says
BoE’s Ramsden highlights unusual patterns of investment and hiring
Weak investment in capital could exacerbate UK’s productivity woes, deputy says
BoE’s Broadbent: constant Brexit delays are hurting investment
Deputy governor blames “repeated series of cliff edges” for poor UK investment
Cambodian central bank voices concerns over possible Chinese spillovers
Central bank fears a sharp drop in property market could trigger financial system risks
RBNZ paper hunts cause of flattening Phillips curve
Paper explores trend of declining relationship between inflation and economic activity
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of long-term rates
Long-term rates have significant impact on Italian banks’ risk appetite, researchers find
Strong dollar is weighing on trade – BIS’s Shin
Advanced-economy monetary policy may have made the problem worse, he says
Cooling economic activity in China paves way for more stimulus
Policy-makers may turn to fiscal stimulus rather than monetary easing
IMF staff strike deal for $6 billion Pakistan bailout
Mission chief says central bank should focus on inflation control and exchange rate flexibility
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
Trump’s tariffs aren’t hurting eurozone yet, says ECB
Economists warn of danger to US in escalating trade war
China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations on surging industrial production
But the recovery may not prove durable, economists warn
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF
BoJ downgrades economic outlook as regional growth disappoints
Haruhiko Kuroda says robust domestic demand could offset some of the weaknesses in exports
US wage growth ‘possibly double’ what is reported – Dallas Fed
Researchers use dataset that includes those who move house to calculate wage growth
Lower unionisation ‘unlikely to account for’ low wage growth
In Australia, share of employees covered by wage agreements negotiated remains stable, RBA researchers find
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment