Macroeconomics
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Ageing population is deflationary – HKMA paper
Deflationary pressures “should not be ignored”, economist says
BoJ cuts inflation forecast in fourth consecutive outlook report
Central bank maintains interest rates and yield curve control
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Bank of Israel calls on government to reduce deficit
Budget imbalance is forecast to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2019, official target is 2.9%
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Atlanta Fed launches new rental market data tool
“Affordability tracker shows many households struggle to find affordable housing”
Can central bank revamp help Tunisia remain a ‘public good’?
Central Bank of Tunisia moves to modernise, but faces tough times ahead
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
Tunisia’s El Abassi on central banking during a regional security crisis
Central Bank of Tunisia governor talks about capacity building, fintech and relations with the IMF
IMF calls for fiscal consolidation in anticipation of next crisis
As global financial conditions tighten, emerging economies record higher corporate and sovereign debt
Haldane examines ‘puzzling pattern’ of weak wage growth
Average weekly wages are now lower than before the crisis, in real terms
Globalisation becomes more divisive as it advances – Dani Rodrik
Harvard economist says gains from trade may not outweigh redistributive problems
Market power, intangibles and risk premia behind low risk-free rates – paper
Brookings paper questions savings glut and technological slowdown hypotheses
IMF warns low-income countries about higher debt risks
Increased exposure to non-traditional lenders could increase rates and shorten maturities
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo’s latest book updates his work on balance sheet recessions