Macroeconomics
‘Combination’ forecasts can beat standard methods – RBI paper
Traditional inflation-output relationship seems “broken”, authors say
Fed’s Quarles ‘optimistic’ on economic outlook
Second wave of Covid-19 cases should be more manageable than the first, Fed vice-chair says
IMF staffers warn of looming sovereign debt crises
Governments and markets should agree to extend bond maturities, IMF says
Supply curves may be convex – ECB paper
Findings imply that Phillips curve is convex and fiscal policy is state-dependent, authors say
Deep learning can beat other forecast methods – Bank of Korea research
Deep learning models have smaller margin of error than conventional methods, research finds
BoE officials fear long-term ‘scarring’ as uncertainty hits record high
MPC members broadly gloomy on the outlook, but there is “huge” uncertainty, says Andrew Bailey
BIS paper studies lifecycle of zombie companies
Number of zombie firms has risen substantially, and their future prospects are not good, authors say
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
Colombian exchange rate shocks are asymmetric – central bank paper
Impact of 2014 drop in Colombian peso lends support to “dominant currency” theory, authors say
Podcast: Cleveland Fed director on all things inflation and Covid-19
Robert Rich discusses money supply growth and muted inflation, plus new Fed research
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Foreign financing can help exporters survive – BIS paper
Result could be important for the development of emerging economies, authors say
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
Emerging markets face L-shaped recession – paper
Researcher works back from growth forecasts to see how Covid shocks might play out
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
New York Fed study exposes ‘disturbing’ reality for black-owned firms
Data shows black-owned firms were disadvantaged from the start of the pandemic
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
IMF research highlights limits of exchange rate flexibility
New dataset sheds light on role of dominant-currency invoicing for exchange rate dynamics
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire”, says managing director
IMF and World Bank chiefs call for more action on debt relief
But G20 fails to agree extension to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative
Brainard urges caution about US recovery
Bounce in activity came earlier than expected but major risks still loom, Fed board member says
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high