Macroeconomics
Covid-19 macro effects could last 40 years – research
Research from University of California says natural rate could take decades to return to normal
16% of US jobs in high-risk sectors – Brookings research
Researchers examine possible impact of coronavirus in US
US economy could face largest quarterly contraction in history – Bullard
$2.5 trillion in national income might be wiped out due to essential “throttling down” measures
US health system likely to be overwhelmed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers must support massive healthcare investment and social distancing
Fiscal effects may take several weeks to pass through – research
Economist examines lag time for Obama’s Great Recession-era fiscal package
Book notes: The art of economic catch-up, by Keun Lee
Rather than merely catch-up, book offers countries advice in making sea change in economic statuses
G7 leaders avoid committing to co-ordinated virus response
Central bankers and finance ministers “stand ready”
Too early to speculate on coronavirus impact – Fed vice-chair
Experts urge Americans to brace for “inevitable” spread of the virus in the US
US exporters hit by Trump’s import tariffs – Fed paper
Firms making 80% of US exports affected by tariffs on input goods, researchers find
US is still an attractive FDI destination – Fed paper
FDI slowdown in 2017–8 due to corporate restructuring and reversing debt flows, researcher argues
‘Intangibles’ may be adding to long-run rate decline – BoE’s Haskel
Economist says “tyranny of collateral” could be a problem for modern economies
De Guindos stresses uncertainty from coronavirus outbreak
Powell and Carney said Fed and BoE are closely monitoring the virus’s impact on the economy
Remittances can cause volatility if concentrated – IMF paper
Flows of remittances are broadly stabilising for the receiving country, but not if they are too concentrated, paper finds
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
The changing climate has a different impact on growth depending on a country’s normal climate, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
US-China trade deal could damage some countries’ trade flows – IMF paper
Eurozone could face loss of trade from between $61 billion to $84 billion, researchers find
SBP looks back on tough year for Pakistan
Lack of fiscal consolidation hampered central bank’s crisis response, annual report says