Macroeconomics
Old people hit hardest by inflation, research finds
Authors find income effects and “Fisher channel” have the biggest impact on Spanish households
IMF paper explores second-round effects of oil shocks
Authors find oil shocks have greater impact where inflation is already high
US CPI inflation falls modestly
New York Fed reports “steep declines” in inflation expectations, but core CPI ticks up
Central banks will be ‘tested’ by long-term inflation – BIS’s Borio
Persistent inflationary forces could bring central banks into conflict with government, official says
IMF signs off on $1.3bn package for Zambia
Executive board urges Bank of Zambia to rebuild reserves and tackle bad debts
Supply-side pressures likely to persist – Carstens
Policy-makers “need to be realistic” about the feasibility of demand management, BIS chief says
ADB provides $100 million in emergency loans to Mongolia
Funds will be used to expand government support for vulnerable households
Glapiński accuses Germany of wanting to redraw land borders
Polish governor warns on plans for EU super-state as German foreign office calls claims “absurd”
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
RBI’s Patra envisages India as ‘economic superpower’
India has chance to achieve “escape velocity” from emerging market status, deputy says
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis
Little risk of stagflation in Netherlands, says DNB
Wages are no longer inflation-linked and profits are higher, the Dutch central bank confirms.
US inflation: it’s mainly global
Steve Kamin analyses the pre-existing conditions that impacted inflation in the US and elsewhere
Mismeasurement may cause ‘missing-investment puzzle’ – BoE’s Bailey
Rise in intangibles could explain apparent fall in investment despite stable returns, governor says
Tanzania’s current account deficit more than doubles YoY
Deficit reached $3.7 billion in May, as country turns to IMF for support
US risks slipping back into secular stagnation, says Rajan
Fed has “good chance” of defeating inflation but US economy has deeper problems, economist says
Bank of Canada deputy stresses heterogeneity’s role in monetary policy
Debt may complicate tightening cycle, as Canadian consumer inflation expectations rise
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
IMF paper proposes ‘policy space index’
Authors try to quantify countries’ room to respond to a “black swan” event
US inflation expectations inch higher
New York Fed survey finds rise in expectations at one-year horizon, but not at longer term
Holding the line: the right response to war and Covid
Jagjit Chadha offers advice to policy-makers struggling to navigate between economic shocks
Atlanta Fed revises growth estimate downward
This quarter has the possibility of officially beginning a US recession