Macroeconomics
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
IMF paper proposes ‘policy space index’
Authors try to quantify countries’ room to respond to a “black swan” event
US inflation expectations inch higher
New York Fed survey finds rise in expectations at one-year horizon, but not at longer term
Holding the line: the right response to war and Covid
Jagjit Chadha offers advice to policy-makers struggling to navigate between economic shocks
Atlanta Fed revises growth estimate downward
This quarter has the possibility of officially beginning a US recession
Fed’s favoured inflation gauge falls
PCE inflation reading for April 2022 was down from March
IMF calls for action on fragmenting global economy
Senior officials say world is facing “confluence of calamities” and leaders have been complacent
BIS report highlights macro risks of inequality
Persistent inequality could weaken policy and create negative feedback mechanism, research finds
BIS economists see ‘limited’ evidence of wage-price spiral
But institutional shifts and changing expectations could set stage for greater price increases
Lagarde sees risks in ‘new global map of economic relations’
ECB president says fragmentation through “friend-shoring” and regionalisation is rising
Climate change, invasion, recession: policy-makers flag mounting risks
Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell discuss “ripple effects” of war in Ukraine
Nabiullina admits sanctions taking toll on Russian economy
Central bank preparing legal action in bid to unfreeze $300 billion of foreign exchange reserves
Climate transition set to boost inflation, finds Swedish research
Sveriges Riksbank analyses main inflationary forces stemming from climate policies
IMF raises red flags for global growth
Fund warns of global fragmentation as it cuts growth forecast and predicts higher inflation
IMF paper calls for action on long-term Covid risks
Vaccination drive is falling short and is not enough on its own, authors say
US’s Rouse optimistic on inflation outlook
Chief economic adviser says food production can do more to raise supply than in energy industry
US inflation continues ascent
CPI inflation reached new high of 7.9% in February
Economists warn Latin America faces another lost decade
Continent is “halfway to a lost decade already”, says World Bank’s Carmen Reinhart
IMF and World Bank pledge Ukraine aid
Fund considering emergency loan and World Bank assembling $3 billion package
BIS paper estimates slack in Mexico’s informal labour market
Calculating Nairu is challenging given large unregulated sector, authors say
BIS paper finds real links matter for asset price co-movement
Real economic integration may be more important than previously thought, authors say
IMF paper finds falling r* should eventually reverse
Authors say several policies could be used to push natural rate back up
IMF signs off on Pakistan aid despite ‘exceptionally high’ risks
Central bank reserves are low and fiscal spending breached limits, but recovery is proving strong