Macroeconomics
US exporters hit by Trump’s import tariffs – Fed paper
Firms making 80% of US exports affected by tariffs on input goods, researchers find
US is still an attractive FDI destination – Fed paper
FDI slowdown in 2017–8 due to corporate restructuring and reversing debt flows, researcher argues
‘Intangibles’ may be adding to long-run rate decline – BoE’s Haskel
Economist says “tyranny of collateral” could be a problem for modern economies
De Guindos stresses uncertainty from coronavirus outbreak
Powell and Carney said Fed and BoE are closely monitoring the virus’s impact on the economy
Remittances can cause volatility if concentrated – IMF paper
Flows of remittances are broadly stabilising for the receiving country, but not if they are too concentrated, paper finds
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
The changing climate has a different impact on growth depending on a country’s normal climate, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
US-China trade deal could damage some countries’ trade flows – IMF paper
Eurozone could face loss of trade from between $61 billion to $84 billion, researchers find
SBP looks back on tough year for Pakistan
Lack of fiscal consolidation hampered central bank’s crisis response, annual report says
BoE’s Tenreyro comes to the defence of flexible exchange rates
Policy-maker challenges conventional wisdom in several areas of economics
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics