Macroeconomics
Trump’s tariffs aren’t hurting eurozone yet, says ECB
Economists warn of danger to US in escalating trade war
China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations on surging industrial production
But the recovery may not prove durable, economists warn
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF
BoJ downgrades economic outlook as regional growth disappoints
Haruhiko Kuroda says robust domestic demand could offset some of the weaknesses in exports
US wage growth ‘possibly double’ what is reported – Dallas Fed
Researchers use dataset that includes those who move house to calculate wage growth
Lower unionisation ‘unlikely to account for’ low wage growth
In Australia, share of employees covered by wage agreements negotiated remains stable, RBA researchers find
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
China resorts to fiscal policy to stimulate slowing economy
China says it plans more fiscal stimulus while maintaining prudential monetary policy
BIS book outlines macro-financial policy framework
“Integrated inflation targeting” would combine policies for maximum effect, authors say
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Ageing population is deflationary – HKMA paper
Deflationary pressures “should not be ignored”, economist says