Macroeconomics
MMT rests on ‘untested statements’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors warn that modern monetary theory rests on shaky foundations
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
IMF adjusts growth forecasts upward
Fund warns of uneven and unequal recovery, but is more optimistic than it was in October
Unemployment set to rise to 8% in 2022 – Irish central bank
Bottlenecks in the jobs market may delay employment’s return to pre-pandemic levels
BoE’s Tenreyro highlights divergence in UK and US policies
US focused on protecting incomes, while UK protected jobs, MPC member notes
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Expectations play key role in policy transmission – BoE paper
Authors use high-frequency data to assess importance of term premia and expectations
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality
Richmond Fed’s Barkin calls for more vocational training
Tom Barkin says US infrastructure workforce depleted; advocates more immigration
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
RBI’s Das: pandemic improved India’s external balance
Boom in software business helped shore up current account and boost RBI reserves, governor says
BIS paper contrasts firm financing in US and Asia
Authors argue market segmentation drives different patterns of bond and loan financing
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Kenya strikes deal on $2.4 billion IMF package
“Multi-year effort” required to stabilise public finances and boost growth
Virus impacts consumer credit more than restrictions – Fed paper
“Pandemic itself” was main driver of credit contraction in US, not lockdowns, paper finds
Shadow banks play key role in business cycle – BoE paper
Contraction in securitisation can spill into wider credit conditions, researchers say
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper
Cleveland Fed research says two decades of growth would produce 3.6% unemployment
Latin American economies threatened by pandemic resurgence – IMF
Western hemisphere chief warns recovery is uneven and under threat
IMF grants Tonga $10 million emergency loan
Fund’s Article IV report expresses concern about banking sector; predicts GDP contraction
Reserve Bank of Australia launches A$100bn in new QE
Australian central bank surprises analysts with easing measure, despite more hopeful macroeconomic forecast
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
IMF staff lay ground for $1.8 billion loan to Costa Rica
Staff set terms for three-year loan as high debt and Covid-19 take toll
IMF warns of ‘exceptional uncertainty’ in vaccine-driven recovery
Fund upgrades global forecasts amid early success of vaccine rollout