Macroeconomics
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
The changing climate has a different impact on growth depending on a country’s normal climate, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
US-China trade deal could damage some countries’ trade flows – IMF paper
Eurozone could face loss of trade from between $61 billion to $84 billion, researchers find
SBP looks back on tough year for Pakistan
Lack of fiscal consolidation hampered central bank’s crisis response, annual report says
BoE’s Tenreyro comes to the defence of flexible exchange rates
Policy-maker challenges conventional wisdom in several areas of economics
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
There are better ways to solve China trade dispute – Atlanta Fed economist
It is “underappreciated” that the Chinese currency is devalued, Tao Zha says
Fed can now keep rates on hold, senior official says
Recent cuts have provided greater assurance Fed will hit inflation target, Charles Evans says
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
BoE paper explores collateral’s impact on labour market
Collateral value affects hiring decisions by small businesses, authors find
Inflation models must pay more attention to globalisation – Brookings paper
Global factors more important for some inflation measures since 2008 financial crisis, researcher finds
RBI’s Das weighs up external economic threats
India’s external sector is resilient, but capital flows have been volatile and trade weak, governor says