Macroeconomics
Research finds productivity impact from monetary policy
Paper sets out model of supply-side transmission channel, which can lead to flatter Phillips curve
Design flaws in Covid relief package cost millions of jobs – Fed paper
Delay to paycheck protection programme had “very substantial” impact, economists argue
Bank of Lithuania paper explores spillovers of US policy uncertainty
Authors find “significant recessionary and deflationary effect” and synchronous response worldwide
Terms of trade shocks not symmetric – BoE paper
Developing countries particularly vulnerable to export shocks, study finds
Fed’s Clarida says vaccine rollout has ‘brightened’ 2021 economic outlook
Rising Covid cases are downside in near term, but economy should bounce back, says vice-chair
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Covid-19 likely harms productivity – BoE paper
Private sector could lose 5% of its productivity in Q4 this year, authors estimate
G20 agrees ‘common framework’ on debt relief
Leaders welcome decision, but criticise private sector for failure to act
Zambia prepares for debt default
Talks on payment freeze fail as G20 prepares to debate further debt relief
BoE paper offers solution to ‘paradox of flexibility’
Using shadow rate can avoid anomalous results at zero lower bound, authors say
BIS paper warns economies may stagnate after Covid-19
Author models the structural changes brought about by the coronavirus pandemic
Book notes: Austerity, by Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi
When it works and when it doesn’t; every chapter is thorough, informative and persuasive
Sri Lanka central bank sees signs of ‘strong recovery’
Signs of bounce-back in the economy but recent surge in virus cases could cause problems
Fed eases terms on emergency facility as uncertainty rises
High-frequency indicators suggest US recovery is slowing amid resurgence of virus cases
Fed paper presents model of Covid-19 trade-offs
Data-driven model implies lockdown can work if a vaccine can be developed quickly enough
Maggiori, Neiman and Schreger on capital flows and Covid-19
The Global Capital Allocation Project sheds light on where vulnerabilities may lie
Haldane explores long-term consequences of home working
Welfare impact seems broadly positive, but it is uneven and may not last, says BoE chief economist
Lagarde and Weidmann clash over EU recovery fund
ECB president wants it to become a permanent fiscal tool, Bundesbank president thinks it should remain a one-off
Information drives transatlantic policy spillovers – ECB paper
Tighter ECB policy often causes financial easing in US due to “information effect”, researcher argues
Bankruptcies could trigger ‘protracted’ unemployment – BIS research
Reallocating resources quickly will help reduce the pain of adjustment, economists say
IMF warns of permanent economic damage from Covid-19
Pandemic could pitch 90 million people back into extreme poverty, fund says in new economic outlook
Bank of Finland research looks at ECB’s effects on eurozone equities
Researcher says eurozone monetary easing has raised eurozone equities’ expected risk premia