Macroeconomics
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Turkish lira down 22% as crisis builds
Lira collapses and bond yields soar as Donald Trump unveils fresh sanctions
US could lose a third of growth to climate change – Richmond Fed article
Authors warn economic damage could be much more widespread than typically assumed
Zimbabwean economy faces uncertainty after controversial election result
Criticism from international community could hamper Zimbabwe’s efforts at economic recovery
Equities pushing US wealth inequality - Minneapolis Fed paper
Wealth inequality boosted by record-high stocks and slower growth in house prices, paper finds
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
Labour reallocation explains productivity puzzle – BoE paper
Methodological innovation helps solve data-quality issues, author says
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Housing inequality creates credit inequality – NY Fed’s Hirtle
Older people with less need of credit have seen the value of their collateral rise more
RBA paper finds elusive interest rate-investment link
Authors present empirical evidence for inverse relationship between rates and investment
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
Israel’s Flug calls for higher-quality labour market
Country is close to full employment but must do more to improve labour market conditions, governor says