Macroeconomics
New York Fed study exposes ‘disturbing’ reality for black-owned firms
Data shows black-owned firms were disadvantaged from the start of the pandemic
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
IMF research highlights limits of exchange rate flexibility
New dataset sheds light on role of dominant-currency invoicing for exchange rate dynamics
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire”, says managing director
IMF and World Bank chiefs call for more action on debt relief
But G20 fails to agree extension to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative
Brainard urges caution about US recovery
Bounce in activity came earlier than expected but major risks still loom, Fed board member says
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Growth has replaced slack in Phillips curve relationship – Cleveland Fed paper
Findings could have “substantial disinflationary” implications during current recession, researchers say
EMEs should lower rates when faced with capital outflows – Fed research
Not cutting rates could worsen GDP and accelerate outflows, researchers find
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
US facing new challenges as Covid cases surge – Powell
Powell warns of public confidence hit as US infections soar past previous peak
Research looks at possible East Asian trade deals
US and China stand to be worst off if trade war continues, Peterson Institute researchers find
IMF outlook worsens as pandemic intensifies
Fund warns of medium-term challenges for fiscal consolidation and trade
Covid-19 and oil: a tale of three countries
Oil-dependent nations are facing a crisis on two fronts. Central banks must now strike a balance between keeping inflation in check and restoring growth
Bernanke and Yellen join call for new fiscal stimulus in US
Former Fed chairs among 148 economists warning of “disastrous” effects if Congress fails to act
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
High US inflation should not be ruled out
A prolonged health crisis raises the risk that hidden inflationary pressures could be stoked
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
US unemployment falls sharply in May
Unemployment rate declined to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, despite widespread fears it would rise
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
US disinflation accelerated in April
Core inflation sees steepest drop since the 9/11 attacks
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
European Commission pushes for €750 billion budget expansion
Shared financial resources designed to support weakest EU members while spreading cost