Macroeconomics
MMT and the challenge of fiscal monetary co-ordination
Sayuri Shirai contrasts modern monetary theory with regimes of monetary or fiscal dominance
No IMF bias towards ‘excessive austerity’, report finds
But Independent Evaluation Office says fund has been too optimistic in its forecasts
Demand shocks can have permanent impact on US economy – Fed paper
Authors find hysteresis is an important driver of longer-term growth trend in US
Bank Indonesia tells banks to provide financing to SMEs
As much as 30% of banks’ loan books will need to be directed to small businesses
PBoC to provide 300 billion yuan to SMEs
State Council calls on central bank to step in as Delta variant shows signs of denting growth
Canada records surprise GDP decline
Second-quarter figures show 0.3% contraction, which may affect taper and monetary policy
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Canada records highest inflation since 2011
House prices help drive figures up, as inflation becomes campaign issue in election season
Bank of Thailand calls for additional $30 billion borrowing
Debt totalled 54% of GDP by June, putting pressure on the 60% ceiling
Global economy faces ‘decisive moment’ – IMF’s Gaspar and Gopinath
Policy-makers have “window of opportunity” to help those falling behind in Covid-19 recovery
BoE’s Vlieghe: central bankers must speak up about economic fragility
Outgoing MPC member says impact of debt and inequality is “stark”, but goes beyond central banking
Inflation fears are ‘overstated’ – BIS research
‘Little evidence’ of the forces that normally lead to persistent inflation, bulletin article says
Unemployment has non-linear relationship to inflation – Fed paper
Authors say their findings could be relevant to debates over inflation targets
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
IMF agrees with Fed on ‘transitory’ inflation
Georgieva says recent inflation spike likely to pass; supports Biden’s fiscal plans
US unemployment rate stable at 5.9%
Little sign of ‘substantial further progress’ FOMC wants to see before taper
BIS annual report: ‘disaster averted’ but world ‘not out of the woods’
Report weighs up three scenarios for “pandexit”, none of them without drawbacks
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues