Signalling sizeable spending spooks stock markets – ECB study
Larger-than-expected fiscal measures in times of uncertainty could backfire on governments
Markets interpret plans for unexpectedly high levels of government spending during periods of uncertainty as a sign that bad times are on the way, according to new research from the European Central Bank.
The working paper, published on September 15, says that when governments announce large spending plans, stock markets generally react positively and share values tend to start rising.
However, the authors – Leonardo Melosi, Hiroshi Morita, Anna Rogantini Picco and Francesco Zanetti – argue that
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com test test test
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com test test test
More on Economics
Minimum haircuts must be carefully designed – BIS bulletin
Funding- and collateral-driven trades incentivise different repo terms, authors point out
Rise of NBFIs suggests gradualism is best policy – BIS bulletin
Institutions’ uncertain effects on transmission warrant flexibility from central banks, says study
Private liquidity insurance improves stability – BIS study
Yet prospect of central bank interventions can crowd out market, authors say
Lagarde says talk of AI bubble misses ‘bigger picture’
ECB president, a former AI sceptic, now believes not embracing it could ‘jeopardise Europe’s future’
BIS paper explores how central bankers’ lives shape policy
Officials who have experienced high inflation tend to be more hawkish, researcher finds
‘Imaginations are running wild’ – Nagel on AI
Europe is prepared for a financial downturn, Bundesbank president says
Poorer areas in US have higher food inflation – research
Low-income areas also have less disinflation after shocks pass, Atlanta Fed study finds
Daly debates whether US is reliving 90s boom or 70s inflation
San Francisco Fed chief says getting answer right will help in formulating best policy response