Economics
Monetary aggregates useful as eurozone inflation predictor – paper
“Predictive content” of monetary aggregates has improved since 2012, ECB paper says
Consumption shows asymmetric response to shocks – BoE paper
Households appear to respond more strongly to temporary negative shocks than positive ones, and effects are different for borrowers and savers
ZLB magnifies impacts of uncertainty shocks, paper says
Differences caused by zero lower bound are “economically important”, researchers say
Fed paper flags risk of low rates misallocating capital
Where firms rely heavily on intangible capital, lower rates could harm firms’ investment and contribute to secular stagnation, economists warn
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter
GDP calculation needs double deflation, says IMF paper
Single deflation techniques introduce errors which can be significant, authors argue, concluding all nations should use double deflation
Energy base effects pushing recent eurozone inflation – ECB
Effect estimated to be negative for much of second half of 2017
Banks may relax scrutiny of securitised loans – ECB paper
The credit quality of euro-denominated loans falls after securitisation, researchers say
Poloz considers the future of economic modelling
Theoretical and empirical two-pronged approach likely to stay, governor says, though economists are still on the hunt for the “holy grail” single model
Fiscal rules fail to tackle EU policy biases – IMF research
Many biases relate to political economy factors, and should be tackled by future adjustments to the governance framework, IMF economists say
Brexit pain may be coming – panel
Former Bank of England officials warn of fading consumer spending and investment
BIS authors identify tipping point in household debt impact
Researchers trace the effects of household debt on the real economy, identifying thresholds beyond which the long-run impact on consumption and growth intensifies
Dominican Central Bank reports growth of 6.6%
Provisional data from the bank shows it is the fastest growing within the region for the fourth year in a row; agriculture sector fuelling rapid growth
Italian inflation pressures are weakening – ECB paper
Price cuts are more common for manufactured goods, the researchers say, while price increases for services are slowing
ECB papers examine low inflation
Researchers differ over eurozone inflation expectations
Helicopter money would have little impact, Dutch paper says
Household survey suggests little impact on inflation expectations, researchers argue
Irish governor calls for better international finance data
Links between holders and issuers of instruments are badly understood, Lane says
CLS signs MoU with Chinese think-tank
The forex utility will work with the National Institution for Financial Development to support the renminbi’s internationalisation
Coeuré: Europe must redistribute gains from new technologies
Automation might destroy jobs faster than it creates them, ECB official says
LatAm should pursue regional financial integration – IMF paper
Timing is “ripe” for region to pursue financial integration as means of counterbalancing effects of departing global banks, authors say
Dutch paper looks at effects of public capital on advanced country growth
Researchers present data on 20 OECD countries
RBNZ paper sheds light on core macro model
'NZSIM' is a semi-structural model, with a DSGE core augmented with a handful of additional equations
Riksbank early warning indicator signals high risks
New measure of financial fragility performs better than credit gap method, economists say; current readings suggest risks are on a par with 2008
BIS paper finds Fed’s QE had little discernible impact on real economy
Results are still preliminary, authors say, but “cast some doubt” on the effectiveness of US quantitative easing