Productivity
BoE officials fear long-term ‘scarring’ as uncertainty hits record high
MPC members broadly gloomy on the outlook, but there is “huge” uncertainty, says Andrew Bailey
BIS paper studies lifecycle of zombie companies
Number of zombie firms has risen substantially, and their future prospects are not good, authors say
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed chief supports average inflation targeting and worries about Treasuries market and non-bank regulatory weakness
BoE partners with QA Media to benchmark software investments
Central bank aims to improve own software development processes, and those in the banking sector
Should the BoE go negative?
Much research into negative rates suggests central banks should have little to fear
Campos Neto on reforming Brazil’s economy amid Covid-19 distress
Brazil’s governor details emergency asset purchase plans and backs extending SDR funding
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
Eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight pandemic
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for Yellen-backed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting
Can growth in developing Asia be made more sustainable?
The structure of the global economy will be reshaped by Covid-19, writes Philip Turner
Trump’s NAFTA replacement could harm car production – Dallas Fed research
Authors say Mexico could face biggest loss from USMCA deal
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, World Economic Outlook shows
El-Erian on Covid-19 policy risks, ‘zombie’ markets and central bank capture
Former Pimco chief says Fed has gone too far, market function rules needed and chance opens for shared policy load
Transfer season
Trade frictions with the US have caused a mass industrial transfer to China’s neighbours. Zhou Chengjun, IFF Academic Committee member and inspector of the Macro‑prudential Policy Bureau of the People’s Bank of China, says that shouldn’t stop China…
Financial crises harm innovation – BIS paper
Loss of access to bank credit can harm research spending for more than 10 years, study finds
Policy responses to Covid-19
The coronavirus outbreak poses a real threat to the global economy
Do low rates spur investment?
Former IMF head writes there is little hard evidence that low interest rates spur investment
‘Intangibles’ may be adding to long-run rate decline – BoE’s Haskel
Economist says “tyranny of collateral” could be a problem for modern economies
BoE holds rate at Carney’s last MPC meeting
Carney says he has “no regrets” on monetary policy as MPC cuts growth forecast
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
The changing climate has a different impact on growth depending on a country’s normal climate, researchers find
T&T governor calls for productivity reforms
Alvin Hilaire says improvement still required despite recent increase in productivity
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation