Productivity
Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research
San Francisco Fed article says weak recovery in the US due to long-running factors, and not the immediate impact of the global crisis
Bank of Mexico hikes again as inflation remains high
The prospect of tighter policy in the US affects the monetary decisions in its major southern trading partner
BoE’s Tenreyro sees hopeful signs for UK productivity
Many factors dragging on productivity may soon start to fade, MPC member says, though the UK seems to be missing out on a global investment boom
IMF’s Obstfeld: effects of accommodative policy remain unclear
The IMF chief economist weighs up the productivity puzzle and whether monetary policy helped or hindered growth following the financial crisis
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
Older workforce will reduce Danish growth, central bank says
Reforms to expand labour supply are needed to offset negative effects of demography
Google’s Hal Varian on how technology is changing economics
Google’s chief economist talks to Christopher Jeffery about how big data and machine learning are facilitating changes in economic thinking; discusses the impact technical breakthroughs may have for central banks
India needs radical reforms, says academic
State ownership has gone too far but the state needs stronger capabilities in other areas, argues Vijay Joshi
Income convergence in eurozone faltered before euro, research finds
Strong financial cycle concealed lack of productivity growth since 1990s in Spain and Italy, implying euro may not be to blame
Ultra-low rates hampered productivity in US, researchers find
A slower pace of policy normalisation can help boost productivity and growth
‘Paradigm shift’ needed for S Korea, warns IMF paper
Authors say “big push” is needed toward implementing social protection and “greater” economic freedoms
Low productivity might not be weighing on real rates – research
Long-run correlations imply there is little reason to believe low productivity is associated with low rates, Cleveland Fed economist finds
Productivity puzzles and the neutral rate of interest
Monetary policy frameworks should be subjected to internal and external reviews to ensure they remain fit for purpose
BIS paper studies how weak banks beget zombie firms
Weak banks have a tendency to misallocate capital, authors find, though the effect is only important in the long run, in contrast to earlier studies
AI adoption lag could explain productivity shortfall – research
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson argue the productivity slowdown is not as surprising as it may seem, and there are reasons to be hopeful
Interview: Edward Prescott
The Nobel Prize-winner speaks to Daniel Hinge about time inconsistency and real business cycle theory, and explains why there is no ‘productivity puzzle’
Communication technology helps explain productivity puzzle – Fed paper
Properly accounting for ICT services produces “very large” boost to US labour productivity figures, authors say
OECD urges UK to maintain ‘close ties’ with EU
Latest assessment of UK economy warns of damaging impact of Brexit vote; Ángel Gurría says close future relationship “absolutely key”
Williams: weak productivity, population growth keep rates low
The “new normal” implies a federal funds rate at 2.5%, says San Francisco’s John Williams
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Atlanta’s Bostic ‘sceptical’ about low inflation factors
President of Atlanta Fed is not sure technology and competitive pressures are to blame for prolonged below-target inflation
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
Fiscal stabilisation spurs growth in low fixed-asset sectors - IMF
Those with difficulty raising external funds benefit most from policy, paper argues