Productivity
BIS paper studies lifecycle of zombie companies
Number of zombie firms has risen substantially, and their future prospects are not good, authors say
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
BoE partners with QA Media to benchmark software investments
Central bank aims to improve own software development processes, and those in the banking sector
Should the BoE go negative?
Much research into negative rates suggests central banks should have little to fear, but there are plenty of caveats
Campos Neto on reforming Brazil’s economy amid Covid-19 distress
The Central Bank of Brazil governor speaks about how Brazil is managing fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the benefit of large reserves, his plans to deploy emergency asset purchases and why he favours extending the IMF’s SDR funding
The ECB, the lockdown and the monetary financing lock
The eurozone’s central bank may need to break its prohibition on monetary financing to fight the pandemic
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
Can growth in developing Asia be made more sustainable?
The structure of the global economy will be reshaped by Covid-19, and what happens in Asia will be crucial, writes Philip Turner
Trump’s NAFTA replacement could harm car production – Dallas Fed research
Authors say Mexico could face biggest loss from USMCA deal
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, a combined loss of output of $9 trillion for 2020 and 2021
El-Erian on Covid-19 policy risks, ‘zombie’ markets and central bank capture
Former Pimco chief says Fed move into high yield is a step too far, new rules needed on leverage and false liquidity, and narrow window emerges for central banks to shed some of their policy load
Transfer season
Trade frictions with the US have caused a mass industrial transfer to China’s neighbours. Zhou Chengjun, IFF Academic Committee member and inspector of the Macro‑prudential Policy Bureau of the People’s Bank of China, says that shouldn’t stop China…
Financial crises harm innovation – BIS paper
Loss of access to bank credit can harm research spending for more than 10 years, study finds
Policy responses to Covid-19
The coronavirus outbreak poses a real threat to the global economy, writes Sayuri Shirai
Do low rates spur investment?
Many believe low interest rates spur investment, but there appears to be little hard evidence to support such claims, writes former IMF head Jacques de Larosière
‘Intangibles’ may be adding to long-run rate decline – BoE’s Haskel
Economist says “tyranny of collateral” could be a problem for modern economies
BoE holds rate at Carney’s last MPC meeting
Carney says he has “no regrets” on monetary policy as MPC cuts growth forecast
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation; author warns rates could “soon enter permanently negative territory”
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
Changing climate has different impact on growth depending on country’s normal climate, researchers find
T&T governor calls for productivity reforms
Alvin Hilaire says improvement still required despite recent increase in productivity
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Tackling ‘dead-end’ monetary policy
A shift to lower inflation targets would help central banks escape forever-loose monetary policy, writes former IMF chief Jacques de Larosière