Data
Warsh called for fewer FOMC meetings in July
Minutes show committee agreeing on above-target inflation but disagreeing over AI’s effect on prices
Transforming modern supervision: Three forces reshaping regulatory practices
Financial supervisory authorities are increasingly leveraging cloud-native infrastructure, granular data, and AI-enhanced oversight to transition towards a more data-driven and forward-looking approach to supervision
Economists devote up to half of working hours to research
Higher-paid research economists tend to spend more time on own research
ECB finds gaps in geopolitical stress-testing frameworks
Current methods fail to properly capture impact of geopolitical stress on liquidity
Dedicated data units widely used in economics departments
Teams make use of varied microdata in their work
Comms staff need to reflect on how their messages are perceived
BoE’s Eric Tong discusses research probing how the public receives central bank messages via the media
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
IMF’s Katz urges central banks not to wait for ‘perfect’ stablecoin regs
Deputy head stresses data collection should start now as AI may accelerate adoption
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working group minutes: macro-pru calibration challenges
Many central banks are struggling to get enough data, particularly on borrowers
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
South Korea to resume gold buying and may vault domestically
BoK’s reserves head cites geopolitical risks as motivator for institutional gold purchasing
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
LLMs can analyse news articles to spot stability risks – ECB study
Authors use AI to find trigger events in dataset of over 1 million stories
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Mampho Modise on payments reforms and the hierarchy of money
Sarb's deputy governor discusses conflicting crypto directives, wholesale CBDC plans, expensive remittance and a Brics gold-backed settlement unit
CNB to create dedicated department to implement AI
Bank builds self-hosted capabilities to ensure data safety, with plans for hybrid solution