Economics
Paper proposes ‘re-engineering’ US statistics
System for compiling statistics is dated and overly complex, authors say
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
EU labour mobility is cyclical stabiliser – paper
Common market allows migration to markets looking for workers
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
Bank of England to overhaul consumer interest rate statistics
Changes are designed to ensure the statistics reflect consumers’ experiences “as closely as possible”
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says more work may be needed to develop new models, despite recent progress
Oxford academic argues Milton Friedman is misunderstood
James Forder says Friedman had a bigger impact on neoclassical economics than on monetarism
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is still struggling to move from sidelines to mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
Former Fed chair laments US disarray
“How can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?”, Paul Volcker asks
Tunisia’s El Abassi on central banking during a regional security crisis
Central Bank of Tunisia governor talks about capacity building, fintech and relations with the IMF
Haldane examines ‘puzzling pattern’ of weak wage growth
Average weekly wages are now lower than before the crisis, in real terms
Haldane to lead effort to boost UK productivity
BoE chief economist appointed chair of the Industrial Strategy Council
Solid US economy contributes to higher 10-year Treasury yields
Inverted yield curve less likely as long-term growth and inflation expectations rise