Economics
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment
Decision-maker panel seeks to gauge business uncertainty in the context of Brexit
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
GDP needs to be supplemented with welfare measure – economist
Daniel Sichel defends GDP as a measure of production, but says it is not enough on its own
UK economy stumbles as Brexit looms
Quarterly growth slips to 0.2% in final quarter of 2018, and monthly growth turns negative in December
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Euro outpacing dollar as cross-border credit grows
Latest BIS statistics show widening gap between credit growth in the two major currencies
Paper proposes ‘re-engineering’ US statistics
System for compiling statistics is dated and overly complex, authors say
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
EU labour mobility is cyclical stabiliser – paper
Common market allows migration to markets looking for workers
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown