Economics
Import-intensive sectors see higher exchange rate pass-through
Changes in Colombian peso exchange rate against dollar have small effect on exports
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
Free trade agreement to boost growth in Africa – IMF research
Smaller economies are more likely to benefit from more open trade conditions in the continent
BoE’s Ramsden highlights unusual patterns of investment and hiring
Weak investment in capital could exacerbate UK’s productivity woes, deputy says
Cambodian central bank voices concerns over possible Chinese spillovers
Central bank fears a sharp drop in property market could trigger financial system risks
Strong dollar is weighing on trade – BIS’s Shin
Advanced-economy monetary policy may have made the problem worse, he says
Joint project unveils dataset stretching back to 1086
BoE and statistics agencies publish vast collection of historical data
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations on surging industrial production
But the recovery may not prove durable, economists warn
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
RBNZ paper seeks high-speed labour market indicator
“Midas” approach can help build picture of current state of labour markets, say economists
Podcast: Greg Kaplan on heterogeneous-agent models
Monetary and fiscal policy are much more closely connected than many central banks would like
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue