Economics
Bundesbank sees risk of recession in Q3
Economic report paints bleak picture as eurozone inflation continues slide
Government assets are just as important as deficits – IMF research
Borrowing costs are determined by structure of public assets
Proposal to axe Phillips curve triggers controversy
“One cannot just ignore an equation,” retorts Olivier Blanchard
Surge in cross-border credit led by non-banks
Cross-border claims rise at fastest rate since the global crisis, BIS figures show
Ethiopia needs to rebalance after investment boom – IMF Africa chief
Country has achieved impressive development but vulnerabilities have grown, says Abebe Aemro Selassie
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional policy
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
Local policy impact can be dispersed in currency unions – Bank of Spain research
Study analyses effect of large post-crisis fiscal stimulus implemented in Spain
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
RBI set to benefit from granular data warehouse – Das
Central bank’s new “data access lab” will support innovative research, governor says
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Import-intensive sectors see higher exchange rate pass-through
Changes in Colombian peso exchange rate against dollar have small effect on exports
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
Free trade agreement to boost growth in Africa – IMF research
Smaller economies are more likely to benefit from more open trade conditions in the continent
BoE’s Ramsden highlights unusual patterns of investment and hiring
Weak investment in capital could exacerbate UK’s productivity woes, deputy says
Cambodian central bank voices concerns over possible Chinese spillovers
Central bank fears a sharp drop in property market could trigger financial system risks
Strong dollar is weighing on trade – BIS’s Shin
Advanced-economy monetary policy may have made the problem worse, he says
Joint project unveils dataset stretching back to 1086
BoE and statistics agencies publish vast collection of historical data
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations on surging industrial production
But the recovery may not prove durable, economists warn
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF