Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
Most central banks use time series modelling for forecasting and research. Semi-structural approaches, on the other hand, are preferred for scenario analysis, the Economics Benchmarks 2023 finds.
Among the suite of models listed for selection, 87.5% of 32 respondents say they utilise time series models for both forecasting and research. Of those mentioning scenario analysis, 81.3% say they apply semi-structural models.
Machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) and agent-based models
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Economics Benchmarks 2023 report – tentative steps on AI
The benchmarks show some small steps to increase AI use, and shed light on broader reforms to modelling, governance and more
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions
Administrative data tops list as alternative data source
Research and forecasting remain key areas of application for central bank economists
Economists’ rate of access to centralised data services still below par
Central banks in high-income jurisdictions still have more access
Most heads of research are responsible for sign-off on research
Peer-reviewed papers remain most-used metric for measuring research success
Most read
- ECB says iPhone is currently incompatible with digital euro
- Supervisors grapple with the smaller bank dilemma
- ‘Do I die, or do I survive?’ Officials reflect on Basel III complexity