Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes

Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more

Central banks made a host of changes to their forecasting processes in the past year, the Economics Benchmarks 2023 finds.

Overall, central banks’ favoured key forecast models remain similar to past benchmarks. Semi-structural models are the most popular, at 15 of the 33 respondents (45%). Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models came in second place, being the top choice for six central banks in the sample (18%).

One central bank that operates a semi-structural model notes this

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