Risk
Monetary Policy Benchmarks 2025 – executive summary
Data reveals risks to the outlook, applications of scenario analysis and balance sheet policy
Czech Republic, Moldova and Norway hold rates
CNB says services inflation is still high, Moldova is recovering and Norway says it is in no hurry
Bailey switches sides as BoE holds at 4% in 5–4 decision
Members’ views, published for first time, show disagreement around staff’s central projection
ECB to tilt future QE to shorter-term bonds – Schnabel
Collateralised lending to play key role in Eurosystem asset composition
Banks grapple with Fed’s double deadline on stress-test plans
Supervisor consulting simultaneously on next year’s test scenario and broader model changes
Poland cuts rates, while Albania and Sweden hold
Riksbank warns of US stock market bubble
Rethinking policy transmission in the age of AI
Managing machine expectations related to faster, more non-linear and potentially asymmetric price dynamics will require analytical innovation and potentially new forms of oversight, argues Elisa Vilorio de Painter
Is independence compatible with climate action?
Lessons from China indicate relationship between governments and central banks may need to change, argues Mathias Larsen
RBA holds policy as inflation rises
Australian central bank’s inflation forecast assumes one further rate cut in easing cycle
AWS outage barely affected Europe’s central banks
Monetary authorities say robust risk mitigation frameworks helped them to largely avoid fallout
ECB holds rates for third consecutive time
Lagarde celebrates ‘fading risks’ to eurozone growth thanks to trade deals and Gaza ceasefire
Why Europe cannot afford to delay the digital euro
CBDC would counter the erosion of sovereignty as cash recedes, substitution by foreign digital monies and weaponisation of access, argue Biagio Bossone and Céu Pereira
Japan holds rates, as expected, with two dissenting votes
BoJ governor says there is no ‘preset idea’ on future rate rises after dissenters call for 25bp hike
How EU supervisors react to interest rate risk outliers
Banks have faced no automatic penalties for breaching new NII test, but do come under microscope
San Marino blocks bank sale, looks to quell instability
Central bank says financial system is “solid and resilient”
RBA’s Bullock confident in banks’ ability to meet quantum risks
Central bank governor says more innovation and collaboration will be needed in future
BoK holds policy at 2.5% and signals room for further cuts
Rhee Chang Yong says four of six board members open to cutting to 2.25% over next three months
Tariffs will not solve US ‘twin deficits’, BdF governor says
Villeroy de Galhau wants to maintain spirit of transatlantic co-operation despite disagreements
Digitisation of money brings more regulatory risks – IMF head
Georgieva says crypto regs are in early stages and not yet coherent internationally
RBNZ plans to relax lending restrictions for home purchases
New Zealand central bank says moves will make borrowing easier for first-time buyers
RBA says home loan scheme does not heighten risks to markets
Bullock says government’s mortgage programme will not pose additional hazards to financial institutions
Scenario analysis widely used to assess risk but communication varies
Most central banks produce multiple forecasts to illustrate monetary policy risks, but less than half publish them
Chief risk officers: a critical function or a distraction for central banks?
Institutions are divided on whether the role is needed, but it is becoming more common
IMF to provide Sri Lanka with additional $347m in financing
Mission chief says central bank should continue to be independent and build reserves