Inflation
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Bank of Korea makes 25bp cut and lowers GDP forecast again
Central bank hints at further easing as weak domestic recovery and US tariffs dim growth outlook
RBNZ cuts by 25bp in sixth straight rate reduction
New Zealand’s central bank signals steeper easing cycle as tariff uncertainty dents growth outlook
Trends in reserve management 2025: survey results
Insights on strategies in anticipation of tariffs, interest rate divergence and geopolitical risk, FX diversification and de-dollarisation, as well as bitcoin in reserves, FX interventions and gold
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
Book notes: The political economy of central banking, by Alessandro Roselli
Roselli’s book offers a comprehensive history of the relationship between governments and central banks
Tariffs not the only policy causing uncertainty – Fed presidents
Officials highlight risks from US administration’s approaches to deregulation and immigration
Sri Lanka cuts benchmark rate to 7.75% as deflation persists
Central bank projects inflation will move into positive territory during third quarter
Navigating volatile markets: a rule book for fixed income investors
A framework that measures indicators to assess investment in US Treasuries, US credit, European debt and emerging markets debt
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
Egypt’s central bank expects inflation to halve from 2024 levels
Projection comes ahead of this week’s rate decision
Romania opts to hold, citing domestic and global uncertainty
Central bank cites fluctuating commodity prices, tariff risks and volatility resulting from national politics
Ukraine’s Andriy Pyshnyy on the US minerals deal, ongoing reforms and post-war plans
The National Bank of Ukraine’s governor speaks about managing inflation, financial sector reform, FX reserves, international aid and actions in the event of a peace deal
Bank of Mexico puts growth before prices with rate cut
Economists say decision reflects concerns about possible tariff-induced recession
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Rate hikes have created debt-servicing difficulties – ECB study
Research also points to overall robustness in eurozone’s household lending sector
Global reset is testing emerging markets – Gopinath
IMF’s deputy managing director says small economies must be ready to respond forcefully to inflation
Peru cuts by 25bp in surprise move
Policy rate now approaching level “estimated as neutral”, central bank says