Inflation
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
Peru holds policy rate at 4.75%
BCRP stays put as inflation and growth continue to move in right direction
CBRT says protectionism may drive up inflation
In MPC meeting minutes, central bank says tight policy has supported disinflation seen thus far
Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25 basis points
Monetary policy “cannot offset the impacts of a trade war”, says central bank
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
‘Trump slump’ hedges rise on rate cut fears
One dealer notes five-fold increase in number of clients hedging against possibility of faster easing
MNB to follow ‘disciplined, patient policy’ – new governor
In first speech since taking office, Varga says bank will closely monitor food and service inflation
Risk of inflation de-anchoring is higher in US than Canada – study
Authors say risk has also risen for both countries post-Covid
Disinflation is still on track, BoE governor insists
Officials tell UK parliament that success so far does not mean mission is complete
Turkey cuts rates as official inflation figure dips below 40%
However, level of price rises remains well above central bank’s 5% target
Trump 2.0 piles pressure on reserve managers
Speakers at Central Banking Spring Meetings discuss positioning, interventions and impact of lost aid
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Tighter policy in 2021 would have had ill effects – NY Fed study
Authors argue inflation would have fallen only modestly while global demand would have suffered
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
Thailand unexpectedly cuts rates as growth poised to slow
Domestic manufacturing sector faces “intense competition” from abroad, BoT says
Bank of Israel holds rates ahead of budget approval
Decision follows rise in inflation, driven by tax rises to fund ongoing military operations
Bank of Korea resumes easing and lowers GDP forecast
Cut of 25bp aimed at boosting economy as country grapples with US tariffs and domestic political drama
Large geopolitical shocks have outsized economic impact – paper
Researchers find non-linearities, which amplify effects on economy
Tariffs will induce structural change in Canada – Macklem
Increased trade frictions with US will hurt country’s economy but represent “new reality”, says governor
Egypt holds rates at 27.25%
Central bank projects gradual decline in inflation, but points to upside risks from US tariffs
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
Mexico’s central bank halves growth forecast for 2025
Tariffs not incorporated in prediction model, but Banxico expects uncertainty to dampen investment
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy