Inflation
MNB to follow ‘disciplined, patient policy’ – new governor
In first speech since taking office, Varga says bank will closely monitor food and service inflation
Risk of inflation de-anchoring is higher in US than Canada – study
Authors say risk has also risen for both countries post-Covid
Disinflation is still on track, BoE governor insists
Officials tell UK parliament that success so far does not mean mission is complete
Turkey cuts rates as official inflation figure dips below 40%
However, level of price rises remains well above central bank’s 5% target
Trump 2.0 piles pressure on reserve managers
Speakers at Central Banking Spring Meetings discuss positioning, interventions and impact of lost aid
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Tighter policy in 2021 would have had ill effects – NY Fed study
Authors argue inflation would have fallen only modestly while global demand would have suffered
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
Thailand unexpectedly cuts rates as growth poised to slow
Domestic manufacturing sector faces “intense competition” from abroad, BoT says
Bank of Israel holds rates ahead of budget approval
Decision follows rise in inflation, driven by tax rises to fund ongoing military operations
Bank of Korea resumes easing and lowers GDP forecast
Cut of 25bp aimed at boosting economy as country grapples with US tariffs and domestic political drama
Large geopolitical shocks have outsized economic impact – paper
Researchers find non-linearities, which amplify effects on economy
Tariffs will induce structural change in Canada – Macklem
Increased trade frictions with US will hurt country’s economy but represent “new reality”, says governor
Egypt holds rates at 27.25%
Central bank projects gradual decline in inflation, but points to upside risks from US tariffs
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
Mexico’s central bank halves growth forecast for 2025
Tariffs not incorporated in prediction model, but Banxico expects uncertainty to dampen investment
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
ECB board members express regret over QE stimulus
Cipollone says unwinding balance sheet thwarts rate cuts, while Schnabel wants “less activist” bank
Bank Indonesia holds rates at 5.75%
Central bank faces dilemma of whether to prioritise bolstering growth or propping up currency
New Zealand continues easing cycle with 50bp cut
Trade concerns take centre stage as RBNZ delivers fourth consecutive reduction
Australia cuts rates for first time since 2020
RBA delivers long-awaited 25bp reduction but says markets are overconfident about further easing
‘Dark’ oil shipping impacts inflation – paper
Research finds nearly 43% of seaborne crude is shipped undercover to evade sanctions
US inflation higher or more cyclical at start of year – study
Dallas Fed research says slowing inflation is more encouraging if it takes place in January