Inflation
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Rate hikes have created debt-servicing difficulties – ECB study
Research also points to overall robustness in eurozone’s household lending sector
Global reset is testing emerging markets – Gopinath
IMF’s deputy managing director says small economies must be ready to respond forcefully to inflation
Peru cuts by 25bp in surprise move
Policy rate now approaching level “estimated as neutral”, central bank says
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’
Brazil hikes rates again as inflation still above target
BCB tightens by 50bp to 14.75% and leaves next decision open
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Fed holds rates as experts sound alarm over stagflation
FOMC says risks have risen on both the employment and inflation sides of its mandate
FOMC vote rotation ‘distorts’ rates – NBER paper
Regional Fed presidents make decisions based on local conditions, research finds
Time to worry about Japanese debt?
The transition to positive rates means Japan may need to re-examine its huge public debt burden, argues Sayuri Shirai
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Working group minutes: refining forecast models
Central bank economists discuss challenges of tackling errors and integrating new model features
Post-Covid inflation in US mainly driven by demand – study
Author says findings help account for Fed’s difficulty in achieving 2% target
Inflation expectations survey flashes warning signs in US
University of Michigan report, cited by Fed officials, says outlook had dropped in tandem with tariffs
Pakistan points to progress on inflation, reserves and growth
Central bank says tight monetary policy and IMF support will underpin recovery, but risks remain
Eurozone fiscal policies grew real GDP, dampened inflation – ECB
However, Covid-era policies led to higher deficits and debt in years following pandemic, research finds
Rate hikes and financial stability can coexist – IMF panel
Policy-makers can ease lenders’ stress with short-term liquidity when tightening policy, say speakers
IMF cuts forecasts as tariffs add to high uncertainty
World economic outlook sours after Trump tariffs
ECB makes quarter point cut amid ‘exceptional uncertainty’
Lagarde says anyone who thinks world is “shock-free” needs “their head examined”
Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.75%
Growth sluggish and inflation on target but central bank needs more time to judge tariff effects
Atlanta Fed chief urges caution amid ‘big pause’ in US rates
Bostic compares US central bank to car driving through fog, and says now may be the time to pull over