Forecasting
Riksbank hits back over ‘systematically inaccurate' inflation forecasts
Swedish central bank rebuffs claims from the National Institute of Economic Research, that it has overestimated inflation for more than a decade with implications for interest rates and growth
BoJ research proposes new method for ‘nowcasting’ GDP
Paper designs static factor model using ‘ingredients’ of official quarterly GDP statistics to estimate growth over a shorter time horizon
RBNZ rings changes in policy frameworks
Annual report highlights changes in how Reserve Bank of New Zealand is organised, the way in which it formulates policy and the tools at its disposal
Polish paper presents new method for constructing fan charts
Fan charts are an increasingly popular tool for depicting forecasts; working paper proposes a new method for formulating the charts that incorporates 'a mix of judgment and statistics'
Norges Bank deputy backs Bayesian econometrics in policy-making
Jan Qvigstad highlights how Bayesian econometrics have been used to develop two of the central bank’s ’most important’ forecasting tools
Canadian quarterly review outlines toolkit for analysing current economic performance
Summer 2013 edition of the BoC's review contains four articles outlining the bank's latest thinking and methods of analysing current economic trends at home and abroad
IMF cuts global growth forecast as capital outflows hit EM economies
Global growth is projected to remain slightly above 3% in 2013; fund says risks of a longer growth slowdown in emerging market economies ‘have increased'
French paper evaluates forecasting strategies
Working paper says a predictive model that combines information sets is capable of outperforming alternative models that combine forecasts; tests models on French GDP data
Fed paper analyses impact of public views on FOMC forecasts
Working paper says FOMC forecasts are influenced by both internal and external views; analyses the weighting given by committee members to each
New York Fed forecasts support continued easing
Staff forecasts predict inflation and unemployment are unlikely to make significant progress toward their target levels in 2013