Forecasting
ECB paper finds fiscal targets are useful for forecasting
Ex-ante fiscal targets can convey useful information to forecasters despite the possibility of bias, researchers find
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Fed mistakenly releases confidential staff forecasts
Economic projections show staff expect a more gradual pace of rate increases than most Fed officials; supposed to be released to public with a five-year lag
NBER paper seeks better model of trend inflation
James Stock and Mark Watson use disaggregated data on sectoral inflation with time-varying weights, finding this can produce a more accurate model of inflation’s long-term trend
Overconfident forecasters may be ‘overrepresented’ in ECB survey
Working paper finds participation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters drops when uncertainty rises, suggesting the results may be biased
BoE paper questions dominance of Normal distribution
Using the t distribution and time-varying variance improves a vector autoregression’s fit with the data and forecasting performance, researchers find
Riksbank’s new approach to nowcasting reviewed
Article in Economic Review evaluates the forecasting performance of a dynamic factor model adopted by Sweden's central bank, finding it a useful addition to its suite of tools
South African Reserve Bank reflects on forecasts
Latest monetary policy review analyses the central bank's inflation forecasts between 2003 and 2014, finding they 'marginally' outperform outside efforts
Book notes: Finding Equilibrium, by Till Düppe & Roy Weintraub
This unusual book describes the early progress in the mathematisation of economics and, in particular, micro-economic model building
Book notes: Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters, by Walter Friedman
A fascinating book that crosses the traditional boundaries between the history of economic thought and cultural history
Banque de France ‘significantly’ improves research output
External review of central bank research finds ‘significant rise in quantity and quality’ in past six years; suggests improvements in communication with policy-makers
Spanish economists devise system for detecting risks to budget forecasts
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain presents a new ‘toolkit’ to monitor the government budget in real time; authors say it will help protect state’s reputation
Forecasting of ECB and New York Fed became ‘noticeably worse’ during crisis
Researchers at the ECB and New York Fed examined forecasting performance of their central banks; finding they suffered during the crisis, but not more than external parties
Revisions to output gap estimates can skew fiscal stabilisers, IMF says
Working paper proposes a ‘rule of thumb' to take into account the likelihood of revisions to estimates of potential GDP when activating fiscal stabilisers
Inflation report forecasts tend to be right, research shows
IMF and Czech National Bank economists check inflation outcomes against central bank predictions, finding them to be broadly in line
Book notes: The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting
The Map and the Territory is an enigmatic title for a book written by a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan.
Finnish paper finds forecast errors correlate with subjective uncertainty, not 'disagreement'
Paper analyses forecasts in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters and the US Survey of Professional Forecasters to find the best predictor of errors
Banque de France paper explains new GDP forecast model
New model aims to eliminate 'systematic upward predictive bias' since the crisis
New York Fed launches 'consumer expectations survey'
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will launch monthly survey on consumer expectations early next year; project anchors newly inaugurated microeconomic research centre
Riksbank hits back over ‘systematically inaccurate' inflation forecasts
Swedish central bank rebuffs claims from the National Institute of Economic Research, that it has overestimated inflation for more than a decade with implications for interest rates and growth
BoJ research proposes new method for ‘nowcasting’ GDP
Paper designs static factor model using ‘ingredients’ of official quarterly GDP statistics to estimate growth over a shorter time horizon
RBNZ rings changes in policy frameworks
Annual report highlights changes in how Reserve Bank of New Zealand is organised, the way in which it formulates policy and the tools at its disposal
Polish paper presents new method for constructing fan charts
Fan charts are an increasingly popular tool for depicting forecasts; working paper proposes a new method for formulating the charts that incorporates 'a mix of judgment and statistics'
Norges Bank deputy backs Bayesian econometrics in policy-making
Jan Qvigstad highlights how Bayesian econometrics have been used to develop two of the central bank’s ’most important’ forecasting tools