Inflation report forecasts tend to be right, research shows
IMF paper finds inflation forecasts are usually borne out in reality
Forecasts made in central bank inflation reports tend to be borne out in what actually happens, according to an IMF working paper using a "novel methodology" to rate the inflation reports of a sample of central banks.
In Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?, authors Aleš Bulíř, Jaromír Hurník and Kateřina Šmídková transform the prose in inflation reports into numerical values, which they then compare with inflation outcomes – including breaking them down into
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Governance
French president calls for expanded ECB mandate
“We cannot have a monetary policy solely focused on inflation,” Macron says
Governance Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional breakdowns of the data reveal details of central bank powers, staffing and more
Nigerian governor declares fixed exchange rates are over
Cardoso says central bank plans to move to an inflation-targeting regime
Governance Benchmarks 2024 report – central banks’ core processes
The benchmarks shed light on central bank profitability and distributions, independence and more
Vietnamese court jails former central bank officials for bribery
State Bank of Vietnam’s ex-senior supervisor avoided death penalty by returning bribes, court says
Central banks reveal top staffing constraints
Career progression limits, skills gaps and red tape identified as challenges
Most high income central banks lack formal recapitalisation agreements
Seven respondents report launching recapitalisation in past year
New Zimbabwe governor introduces ‘gold-backed’ currency
Adoption of sixth new currency in 18 years is “chaotic”, media reports
Most read
- ECB says iPhone is currently incompatible with digital euro
- Supervisors grapple with the smaller bank dilemma
- ‘Do I die, or do I survive?’ Officials reflect on Basel III complexity