Forecasting
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Bank of Canada publishes 30 years of staff forecasts
Online database “further step” in transparency efforts, deputy governor Wilkins says
CBRT ups inflation forecast 10 percentage points
Leap in forecast reflects dramatic overshooting due to lira weakness
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Podcast: Arthur Turrell on agent-based modelling
The Bank of England economist says ABMs should complement, not replace, other models
Nordhaus and Romer win economics Nobel
Economists specialising in long-run macroeconomic modelling win 2018 Nobel Prize
Uncertainty over monetary policy is ‘recessionary’, researchers say
Forward guidance reduces uncertainty and supports the economy, paper finds
Poloz: ‘digital disruption’ makes it harder to track supply and demand
Technology brings net benefits but also makes the central bank’s work harder, governor says
BoE reveals details of nowcasting approach
Central bank explains approach to generating timely estimates of global GDP
Haldane: ‘superforecasters’ could help central banks
Non-experts could help solve difficult problems for central banks, says Andy Haldane
US growth remains solid in Q3 – Atlanta Fed
Real-time GDP estimation signals 4.4% growth in current quarter
An informed approach to banknote security and durability
De La Rue explains how its data consultancy service, DLR Analytics, allows central banks to ensure notes in circulation are secure and durable, and offers value for money in spite of increasingly prominent alternative payment solutions. By facilitating…
Published rate path has similar effect to other communication – BIS study
Communication is important, but the “exact form” less so, according to research
Bank of Mauritius lowers inflation forecast
Adverse shocks to food prices are subsiding, central bank says
Brian Wynter on Jamaica’s inflation-targeting transition
Jamaican governor says the end of fiscal dominance plus the creation of a two-way forex market and an effective interest rate policy mechanism essential for “full-fledged” inflation target
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
Maldives targets forex shortage with new strategic plan
Central bank wants to tackle dollarisation and forex shortages, and may shake up governance
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Podcast: David Vines on how to reform the DSGE model
Oxford University’s David Vines believes the New Keynesian DSGE model is salvageable – but needs some serious work
Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
Bank of Jamaica’s Wynter on the path to inflation targeting
Bank of Jamaica’s governor talks about revamping accountability, communications and operations as the central bank embraces inflation targeting