BoE paper questions dominance of Normal distribution
VAR model featuring 'fat tails' performs better
Research published on May 29 by the Bank of England (BoE) has struck a blow against macroeconomic modelling using the Normal distribution, instead emphasising the superior performance of the t distribution.
The working paper, Forecasting with VAR models: fat tails and stochastic volatility, by Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, Haroon Mumtaz and Gabor Pinter, features a vector autoregression (VAR) based on the t distribution, which allows for a greater probability of extreme events via its "fat tails"
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Monetary Policy
Bank of Korea considering forward guidance reform
Governor Rhee Chang-yong sees merit in revealing more information to public
Fed policy-makers disagree over risks
Williams and Goolsbee say policy is restrictive but Logan takes different view
PBoC withdraws liquidity and holds key rate
Policy-makers refrain from easing despite weak inflation and exports data
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review should be the start of more profound discussion at the BoE
Peru’s board cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
Central bank says inflation should continue falling towards centre of target range
South Korea keeps monetary policy unchanged
Board says it would be premature to expect inflation to fall to target level despite improvement
Singapore leaves monetary policy settings unchanged
Core inflation likely to start falling in fourth quarter and continue next year, MAS says
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more