Economics
Inside the ECB’s upgraded multi-country model
ECB-Base sets the blueprint for a new semi-structural workhorse model of the eurozone
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Macroeconomists should integrate climate change data into their models, research finds
Paper calls for the use of scientific data on weather and the prediction of extreme climate events
Multiplier of spending cuts bigger than fiscal expansions, paper argues
Impact of austerity is at its peak during recessions, Richmond Fed paper finds
Fiscal stabilisation spurs growth in low fixed-asset sectors - IMF
Those with difficulty raising external funds benefit most from policy, paper argues
Kansas City Fed explores sources of wage dispersion in the US
Paper explores relative importance of “lifetime differences” and “match-specific” factors
Public spending shocks work better when households are confident- paper
Government spending stimulus reduces household confidence as it confirms pessimism regarding economy, paper argues
IMF working paper sees regulation as key driver of decline in foreign lending
Research contends regulatory tightening is behind much of the ‘sluggishness’ in international banking
Inflation and unemployment affect wage rigidity, Icelandic authors find
Research challenges New Keynesian assumption that timings of wage changes are exogenous
Slovenia report simulates effects of structural reforms
Report by local institute argues the time is “ripe” for structural reform in Slovenia
IMF paper examines effect of ‘winning the oil lottery’
Research into impact of oil discovery in certain municipalities in Brazil
Paper uses machine learning to nowcast GDP in Lebanon
Analysis is a ‘distinct challenge’ in the country on account of data lags
Charlie Bean calls for ‘culture changes’ at ONS in final statistics report
ONS should set up two centres to better measure economic activity, Bean says
RBA’s Lowe says productivity still a problem
Despite a successful rebalancing, productivity is still giving policy-makers a headache
Book notes: The end of alchemy, by Mervyn King
King’s radical proposals deserve serious consideration
IMF to publish informal briefings on Argentina
Staff compile informal briefings on countries when they fail to complete Article IV consultations
Money matters: need for a monetary aggregate revival?
Data covering the years of the Great Recession points to value in the Fed's 'old' M3
Is China really the cause of sluggish global growth?
China's policy-makers blame structural problem in the West for global malaise
Financial variables improve output gap estimates, BoE paper finds
Measure gives policy-makers better early-warning indicators
Book notes: Phishing for phools, by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller
A study of the traps markets create for unwitting consumers
BoE’s Cunliffe wants more detailed timetable for European reforms
Deputy governor welcomes ambition and honesty of five president report
Research considers impact of fiscal consolidation on debt-to-GDP ratio
Working paper published by ECB analyses different types of consolidation
Research considers why macroeconomic announcements impact asset prices
Working paper published by ECB weighs ‘intrinsic value’
Caruana marks out dangerous nexus between debt, oil and the US dollar
Latest data points to possible tightening of global liquidity