South African Reserve Bank reflects on forecasts

Inside the South African Reserve Bank

The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has tended to overestimate inflation since 2009 – a marked change from the period before the financial crisis, when the central bank would more commonly underestimate it.

This reversal – which is also evident in outside forecasts – is highlighted in Sarb's latest monetary policy review, which compares the forecast performance of the central bank with the Reuters consensus between 2003 and 2014.

On the whole, the central bank compares favourably. Between Q1

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