Forecasting
Working group minutes: Central banks adopt scenario analysis
Approach is guiding institutions’ responses to Middle East war and El Niño
The OeNB’s Martin Kocher on the Eurosystem’s inflation outlook
The Austrian central bank’s governor speaks about ECB succession, forward guidance and eurobonds, as well as lessons from QE losses, access to cash interventions and Austria’s excessive deficit procedure
The Fed enters a new epoch
Chair Kevin Warsh takes his first steps to transform the US central bank
BoE chief economist explains his votes for pre-emptive hike
Wait-and-see approach to monetary policy risks signalling bias towards status quo, says Pill
Economics Benchmarks 2026 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns shed light on staffing, model types and AI usage
Economics Benchmarks 2026 report – executive summary
Key findings from the benchmark on AI use, model design and data-driven research
Warsh declines to outline Fed’s reaction function
Chair tells Jackson Hole that ‘humble, never naïve’ approach will work and assesses US economy
Economics Benchmarks 2026 report – advanced analytics
AI usage is increasing, but banks still vary in their approaches
BoE staff find uneven policy transmission across businesses
Survey findings suggest larger firms with high productivity and borrowing have better access to data
Economics departments use multiple coding languages
More than half of central banks use five or more coding languages and tools
Dedicated data units widely used in economics departments
Teams make use of varied microdata in their work
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
BoE’s MPC statements not sufficiently ‘collective’, says Bean
Former deputy governor laments ‘excessive and potentially confusing emphasis on individual views’
Tajikistan keeps inflation on target after lowering band
Central bank reports 4.1% price growth in H1, 50bp higher than in first half of last year
BoE’s scenarios are best way forward, say ex-MPC members
Former UK policy-makers say forecasting approach is suited to today’s highly uncertain times
China allows its investors greater access to offshore bonds
PBoC ups quota as HKMA expands yuan funding and city begins trial run for gold clearing
Vanuatu holds rates and forecasts continued economic recovery
Pacific island nation’s central bank says reconstruction efforts, tourism, to drive economy
Mervyn King on his career and big ‘mistakes’
The former BoE governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the value of transparency, lessons from the GFC, the need to track broad money and tie short-term funding to haircut collateral, and danger presented by non-banks
Forecasters look to complexity for better results
Central banks are developing models with production networks, non-linearities and heterogeneity
Switzerland and Norway hold, Czech Republic and Moldova hike
SNB says inflation uptick is temporary, while CNB and Norges Bank highlight wage pressures
Philippines and Indonesia tighten by 25bp
BSP says inflation ‘strong’ as BI’s focus remains on rupiah