Forecasting
RBNZ’s Breman to discuss greater transparency with MPC
New governor says she will raise issue of attributing votes on rate decisions to individual policy-makers
Bailey switches sides as BoE holds at 4% in 5–4 decision
Members’ views, published for first time, show disagreement around staff’s central projection
ECB and BoJ officials reject explicit forward guidance
Central bankers promote ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to rates setting
BoE paper offers methods for policy-making under uncertainty
Forecast-based, news-based and rules-based methods can be used together, authors say
The voice of the central bank in times of uncertainty
The NBU’s monetary policy head Volodymyr Lepushynskyi explains the importance of transparent communications in maintaining trust and managing expectations
Scenario analysis widely used to assess risk but communication varies
Most central banks produce multiple forecasts to illustrate monetary policy risks, but less than half publish them
Central banks must focus on comms – Bank of Finland panel
Institutions need to concentrate on anchoring inflation expectations, governors say
Norges Bank continues easing campaign with another 25bp cut
Central bank governor strikes hawkish tone, highlights increasing productivity
Riksbank deputies say rate forecasting key to transparency
Officials say advantages of openness outweigh drawbacks
More economists expect MAS to ease policy next month
Singapore survey finds most still expect no change to country’s currency exchange band
New Zealand cuts policy rate as economic recovery ‘stalls’
Central bank cuts policy rate 25bp saying global uncertainty caused economic slowdown
Towards a new monetary policy framework for the AI age
AI may render the traditional monetary policy toolkit less effective and the familiar rules of engagement obsolete, argues Biagio Bossone
Warren’s buffer plea is point-scoring, says expert
Professor attacks senator’s call for Fed to tighten bank regs, but echoes concerns about weak lenders
BoT cuts policy rate and forecasts tariff-induced slowdown
Thai central bank cuts by 25bp at final meeting before dovish Vitai becomes governor
BNM cuts growth forecast due to tariff uncertainty
However, Malaysia’s central bank says economy is on “strong footing” amid threat of 25% US levy
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Tobias Adrian on the integrated policy framework amid tariff shocks
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks about policy reaction functions to supply and demand shocks, scenario-based analyses, Treasury market dynamics and emerging market resilience
BoE’s MPC should publish individual rate forecasts – Taylor
Newest committee member discusses r* and calls for greater transparency around forward guidance
Policy must be forceful to anchor expectations, panel hears
Central bankers discuss lessons from post-Covid inflation surge at Summer Meetings
Central bankers discuss policy-making amid high uncertainty
Flexibility, caution and financial stability analysis can support monetary policy, panellists say
Forecasting and narratives under uncertainty
Jagjit Chadha argues the Bank of England should deploy better analysis as the basis for clear communication under uncertainty