Forecasting
Bank of Jamaica’s Wynter on the path to inflation targeting
Bank of Jamaica’s governor talks about revamping accountability, communications and operations as the central bank embraces inflation targeting
Dudley says more effort needed in modelling financial factors
“We were nowhere. Now we’re probably at the first or second grade,” says outgoing New York Fed chief
Have central banks created a ‘debt trap’? No, but ...
Tougher regulation has helped ensure extraordinary monetary policy has not caused a dangerous rise in private debt
Fed’s Evans: central bankers not about to be replaced by machines
Chicago Fed president says uncertainty over technological disruption leaves plenty of room for human judgement
BoE MPC split on publishing rate forecasts
Jan Vlieghe argues current system is “unnecessarily complex”, but Carney is sceptical
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
Yield curve can help improve forecasts – RBNZ economists
Yield curve information tends to improve forecasts of economic activity, researchers find
BIS’s da Silva defends DSGE modelling efforts
The models have not performed as badly as critics claim and new research efforts are creating fresh possibilities, says BIS’s deputy general manager
Financial frictions key to DSGE performance – NY Fed paper
Post-crisis period was a harsh testing ground for structural models, but the New York Fed’s DSGE model was at least equal to private forecasts, researchers say
Measuring Venezuela’s hyperinflation
Steve Hanke discusses how economists can make use of high-frequency exchange rate data to track rapid price movements in Venezuela
Canada’s polymer versus paper substrate cycle
Empirical evidence indicates the switch to a polymer substrate has improved the lifespan of Canadian banknotes, write Ramesh Paskarathas, Lynne Graaskamp, Erik Balodis and Theodoros Garanzotis
Bank of Korea unveils changes to its DSGE model
The existing model’s accuracy was reduced following structural changes in the economy
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Carney rejects accusations of ‘cognitive bias’ at BoE
Parliamentary committee members say BoE relied on inaccurate forecasts before Brexit, affecting policy decisions
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Central bank projections of target variables most influential - paper
Paper examines the impact of central bank forecasts and forward guidance on private sector projections, concluding most firms use them primarily as monetary policy indicators
Botswana chooses polymer for latest banknote launch
African nation partners with UK printer De La Rue for new banknote launch, opting for polymer to prolong life
Google’s Hal Varian on how technology is changing economics
Google’s chief economist talks to Christopher Jeffery about how big data and machine learning are facilitating changes in economic thinking; discusses the impact technical breakthroughs may have for central banks