Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
Research published by the Federal Reserve outlines a method of “nowcasting” Ecuadorian GDP using a dynamic factor model, finding the approach can outperform an alternative method.
Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo and Daniel Baquero set out the model in a recent working paper. They make use of 28 variables of the Ecuadorian macroeconomy to extract common factors that can then be used to forecast growth. Since the forecasts are much more timely than the official releases of growth data, they are known
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review should be the start of more profound discussion at the BoE
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
ECB to explore nature-related risk in environmental plan
Climate change and biodegradation are “two sides of the same coin”
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast
Profit now key driver of inflation, BIS research finds
Recent surge in prices “fundamentally different” to that of the 1970s
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
Most read
- ECB says iPhone is currently incompatible with digital euro
- Supervisors grapple with the smaller bank dilemma
- Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario