Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research

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The Cleveland Fed

The US yield curve has been flattening in recent months, but predicting whether it will completely invert is hard to do, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland economist Kurt Lunsford.

Yield curve inversion, in which short rates rise above longer-term rates, is widely seen as a “harbinger of recession” in the US, according to a Cleveland Fed article on Lunsford’s work. But blue-chip financial forecasts failed to predict the start of any of the yield curve inversions that preceded

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