Yield curve can help improve forecasts – RBNZ economists
Yield curve information tends to improve forecasts of economic activity, researchers find
Information contained within the yield curve can help improve forecasts of the macroeconomy, according to a discussion paper published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Economists Leo Krippner and Michelle Lewis test their macro-financial vector autoregression model against “traditional” macroeconomic models. They deal with the zero lower bound using the concept of a “shadow” rate, a hypothetical rate that would hold if a central bank could cut rates below the lower bound. Krippner won Centra
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