Research
Swing pricing can help ease liquidity pressure – BIS paper
Open-ended mutual funds can mitigate the risk of “self-fulfilling” runs by using the pricing technique, researchers say
Fed policy has had bigger impact on global liquidity since 2009
A 25bp rate cut causes a cross-border lending growth to rise of two percentage points, versus 0.8 before the crisis, researchers find
Firms with greater liquidity needs benefit more from higher public debt – research
The positive effect of government debt on industry stems from domestic debt, not external debt, author finds
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
More communication may hamper monetary policy, paper says
Independence and bigger MPCs may convey confusing messages and provoke forecast errors
Global factor playing bigger role in commodity prices, researchers say
“Single global factor” likely to be linked to demand, Banque de France paper finds
China’s deleveraging efforts pose global financial risks, research says
A sudden financial shock may imperil demand, trade and commodity prices
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Disagreement over inflation expectations weakens monetary policy – Bundesbank paper
Research uses data from Fed’s survey of professional forecasters from 1968 to 2017
Payments evolution will result in bank business model changes
Mid-sized banks will have to transform business models in order to remain relevant, says Swift, as fintech and globalisation threaten traditional practices
Developing states can improve inflation targeting – IMF paper
The research finds a bias in favour of results in line with the academic consensus
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Fed paper constructs ‘loan frontier’ for mortgages
Method mimics literature on estimating production frontiers, allowing authors to study credit provision around the 2008 crisis
Low wage rises may hamper inflation in Sweden – IMF
Higher housing prices and private debt call for stricter amortisation requirements
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Central banks will be using blockchain by 2019 – research
Study examines pros and cons of central banks adopting blockchain and considers use cases
Danish central bank advises Faroese public spending cuts
Higher salmon prices and low unemployment may overheat the economy, the central bank says
DLT not ready for retail payments – Bundesbank
German central bank says retail payment systems are already sufficient to support fast transfers; DLT could be used to streamline global payment processes
Czech exchange rate floor helped fight deflation – IMF paper
Range of methods imply the exchange rate floor was an effective measure, having been employed after hitting the zero lower bound
ECB paper attempts rigorous testing of economic sentiment
Researchers correlate economic data from 1985 to 2016 with measures of sentiment
BoE economist discusses danger of ‘virtual’ bank run
Faster payments and rise of smartphone technology have made it possible for consumers to drain commercial banks without having to leave their homes, official says
Rate hikes could halt asset bubbles, research finds
Tighter policy can work if savings fall or holdings of bubble asset decline, paper says
‘Significant non-linearities’ in debt-investment relationship, paper says
Researchers look at data from five peripheral eurozone countries
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing