Research
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Spanish paper analyses determinants of private saving
Fiscal, demographic, financial and income effects are key, researchers find
Financial regulations have been procyclical historically – research
Regulations tend to weaken during economic booms and strengthen with crisis
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
Central banks lack ‘firepower’ to combat financial crises, says report
Without interest rate cuts available, the next financial crisis could be much “longer and deeper”, Global Risk Report says
Macroeconomists should integrate climate change data into their models, research finds
Paper calls for the use of scientific data on weather and the prediction of extreme climate events
Banking ‘deserts’ do not explain financial exclusion – NY Fed economists
Data shows absence of nearby banks fails to explain “unbanked” share of the population
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Policymakers should increase credit to ‘single-bank firms’ – paper
Researchers examine “unique natural experiment” of 2012 change to ECB’s QE policies
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Central bank projections of target variables most influential - paper
Paper examines the impact of central bank forecasts and forward guidance on private sector projections, concluding most firms use them primarily as monetary policy indicators
Fall in hours worked can flatten Phillips curve, Italian paper says
Changes to “intensive margin of labour utilisation” may make inflation less responsive to employment
Low rates push investors to seek risk abroad – BIS paper
Authors find that low rates at home drive risk-taking overseas and the effect accelerates as rates approach zero
Financial initiatives may bypass people with lower financial literacy, paper says
Reforms in Israel designed to benefit the whole population did not reach some groups
Central Bank of Brazil survey shows poor savings habits
More than half of respondents had no spare earnings over past year to put aside, which could put them at risk if “unforeseen expenses” arise
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
BoE paper outlines big-data-based early warning indicator
Text mining approach seeks to capture how narratives can drive action in financial markets
Older workforce will reduce Danish growth, central bank says
Reforms to expand labour supply are needed to offset negative effects of demography
Richmond Fed paper explores Fed’s monetary policy history
The author identifies a lack of consensus on the nature of the monetary regime as a policy weakness
Eurozone countries’ manufacturing sectors are diverging, Italian paper finds
Manufacturing profits rise relative to non-tradables in Germany and Spain, but fall in France and Italy
Public debt in EU countries harms growth, ECB paper argues
Researchers find public debt crowds out investment but private debt is used efficiently
Fed paper studies inequality in three dimensions
Authors find examining three dimensions simultaneously gives new insights
Colombian paper says resolution co-operation is needed in the region
Authors examine how resolution plans have evolved and conclude more work can be done with regard to local systemically important financial institutions and cross-border activities