Research
Fed paper: portfolio holdings have ‘statistically significant’ effect on rates
Research studies composition of Fed’s Treasury portfolio and impact on yields from 1985-2016
BIS paper seeks hints that Swiss franc floor was about to break
Measures derived from option prices indicate credibility fell before floor was removed; error correction model shows some improvement over random walk
Deregulation aided women entering US labour force – paper
ECB paper finds efforts to open up the credit market from the 1970s to 90s helped reduce the gender gap in the labour force
CEPR paper sketches ‘radical, realistic’ Greek reform plan
Stanford and Yale economists outline “unorthodox” policies that could put Greek debt on a sustainable footing – and might be acceptable to all negotiating parties
US policy having a larger impact on credit – BIS paper
Monetary policy’s effects on credit and housing markets have grown while the effects on inflation have weakened, paper finds
Big data sheds light on income risk – Minneapolis Fed research
Better sources of data have allowed economists to gain new insights into how income risk changes over the cycle, says researcher
Pass-through varies across countries and time – BoE paper
Kristin Forbes and co-authors study the shocks and structural factors that help explain variations in the exchange rate’s impact on inflation
BoE bloggers suggest central banks could use equity-financed QE
Economists raise ideas for future balance sheet innovations, including digital currencies, helicopter money drops and equity-based quantitative easing
Household balance sheet adjustment a long process – Danish study
Research into patterns of consumption and saving before and after the 2008 crisis shows deleveraging can take a long time; consumption impact of rate hike is “modest”
New Keynesian DGSE models need financial spillover channels – ECB paper
Models without powerful financial spillover channels will be “misleading”- researchers
IMF says remittances do not balance out losses caused by emigration
Remittances are key for providing support to LAC countries in terms of fiscal and financial stability; lack of labour resources and decline in productivity outweighs remittance support
Monetary policy ‘significantly’ affects the trade balance – paper
IMF paper links the effects of monetary policy on trade and its impaired transmission following the financial crisis
Italian paper looks at effects of crisis on interbank network
Integration fell in 2007–8 but rose after ECB adopted unconventional policy, paper finds
Survey data can help with modelling expectations – BoJ paper
Discussion paper outlines method of incorporating survey data as a proxy for expectations, with “promising” results for inflation modelling in the US and Japan
‘Multiple lending’ may cause contagion during stress – paper
Researchers say multiple lending may ease liquidity shocks in normal conditions, however
Exogenous constraints affected asset purchase programme, Irish paper says
Research letter looks at impact of extended scheme
PSPP’s effects became significant after expansion – Irish paper
Paper examines responses of Ireland-domiciled investment funds
BIS paper links debt service lag to impact on real economy
Authors find the lag between borrowing and peak debt service helps explain why debt booms reduce future output and increase the probability of a crisis
Some outflows from China may have been ‘disguised’ – Fed paper
China’s success reducing current account surplus may partly have been due to financial outflows disguised as “travel”, Fed economist finds
Model looks at outbreak of ‘fire sales’
Higher capital ratios may aggravate financial contagion, the authors say
BIS paper: forces driving global liquidity are shifting
Paper examines factors behind changing patterns of global liquidity, finding improved prudential standards have cut volatility
BoE economist sees monetary policy benefits to demonetisation
Removal of high-denomination notes could help central bankers maintain policies of low inflation and interest rates near the zero lower bound
Co-operation matters for macro-prudential impact – BIS paper
Gains from co-operation can be large but asymmetric benefits could create political economy problems, authors say
Income is an important factor for housing demand in Turkey – paper
Profitability of housing investment in Turkey fell in 2003–14; Ceritoğlu suggests drop in home ownership is down to relative price changes