Research
Banks need to tailor data strategies to clients, paper says
Dutch customers are open to sharing their payments data to enhance security, but do not want banks to sell it on, research finds
Credit spreads’ limited use as short-term predictors – paper
Researcher examines the accuracy of three sets of credit spreads
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
Shadow banks ‘interfere’ with macro-pru – paper
Institutional function should determine whether institutions are regulated, say researchers
Spanish paper looks at business cycle’s effects on industry
Industries are not moving uniformly to cohesion with the business cycle, says paper
Fintech has potential to lower cost of financial services – paper
BIS research highlights continued inefficiencies in current financial services system; fintech could alleviate costs but only if regulation permits it to do so
Fiscal multipliers significantly higher at effective lower bound, paper says
Researchers use data from 17 advanced economies for the period of 1960–2015
Paper’s forecasting technique using Markov-switching models
Results outperform Fed’s survey of professional forecasters, says Bank of Spain paper
IMF research explores effects of lighter rule on US banks
Republicans in Congress claim Dodd-Frank increases complexity and hampers small banks’ lending
BoE working paper examines ‘exorbitant privilege’ benefits
Economist analyses whether the UK enjoyed the same benefits as the US when it was the pre-eminent issuer of a global reserve currency; findings show fundamental differences between the two in terms of investment patterns
Fed paper: corporate bond buying can misallocate capital
Capital misallocation effects can mean corporate bond purchase schemes underperform QE based on sovereign bonds, say economists
IMF deems negative rates to have had ‘no major side effects’
IMF paper explores the impact of negative interest rates on bank behaviour, concluding the transmission to money markets and bond yields has worked well
San Francisco Fed economist explores methods to forecast interest rates
Michael Bauer aims to forecast interest rates based on the current level and long-run trend, and a narrative linking both
Banks not ‘boring’ before Glass-Steagall repeal, New York Fed economist says
There is little evidence of an explosion in non-traditional activity after Glass-Steagall was dropped, despite the conventional narrative, economist says
Tax cuts should focus on income from capital, French paper argues
Cutting taxation on labour is less effective in boosting growth, researchers say
IMF explores ways to increase profitability of Italy’s banking sector
Italian banks have operated in a low-growth environment since early 1990s; eurozone interest rates at record lows since global financial crisis
Eurozone’s demographics will continue to push interest rates down – paper
Structural policies will take time to reverse impact of adverse demographics, researchers say
Evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies spells trouble for emerging markets – paper
Research explores the impact future monetary policy will have on emerging markets, concluding many will be forced to implement defensive measures
Paper proposes method to estimate network of exposures
Researcher draws on aggregate exposures and market data to build a more complete picture of the network of bank exposures
IMF research flags technology’s role in falling labour share of income
Automating routine tasks is cheaper for companies, which reduces jobs for middle-skilled workers and contributes to higher inequality in advanced economies, paper finds
BoE economists issue ‘call to arms’ for macro-prudential research
Researchers outline a simple framework to help understand the macro-prudential “balancing act”, but say there is a long way to go in developing a definitive model
BoE paper warns escape from secular stagnation may ‘beggar thy self’
Authors outline an unappealing situation where the only escape comes from currency depreciation, but may nevertheless end up harming domestic welfare
Regulations have net benefit despite cost to dealers – BoE paper
Working paper finds leverage requirements have raised costs for dealers in normal times, with the impact larger than earlier studies imply
Eurozone tax systems subsidise housing debt, ECB paper argues
Under-taxation of returns to home equity drives distortions, researchers say