United States
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
Dallas Fed picks former Goldman banker to replace Fisher
Robert Kaplan to take over as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, bringing experience in academia and as a senior executive at Goldman Sachs
New York Fed researchers shine light on process of giving policy advice
Economists including head of research explain the process of briefing William Dudley ahead of FOMC meetings
End of sanctions could be double-edged sword for Iranian banks
Iran central bank vice-governor warns domestic banks have work to do before they are opened up to international competition, but Iranian investors see end of sanctions as broadly positive
US rate hike still a possibility after ‘solid’ jobs data
Federal Reserve still on track to hike rates later this year, possibly as soon as September, after latest jobs data shows 215,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
Insurers call for clarity on US agency risk weightings
Capital treatment under Solvency II unclear, say securitisation specialists and insurers
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Fresh delay will push EU-US CCP row into September
Decision had been expected in July; dealers sceptical new timeline will hold
Fed’s Powell weighs factors behind market-making evolution
Governor notes regulation is a contributing factor but not a dominant one, explaining the evolution of market-making; technology and participant behaviour both important
Fed communication driving Trinidad and Tobago policy
Trinidad and Tobago MPC cites Fed guidance on interest rates as the ‘most influential factor’ in its decision to tighten monetary policy
Bundesbank research tracks changing financial cycle
Discussion paper seeks to establish the ‘empirical regularities’ of the financial cycle using an econometric model, finding the cycle has grown longer and more severe over time
BoJ paper finds emerging markets struggled to protect themselves from QE
Foreign exchange interventions and capital flow policies did little to shield emerging markets from the spillovers caused by quantitative easing in the US
Fed leaves door open for rate hike
FOMC statement offers hints that the US labour market is reaching a position where a hike could be possible, indicating interest rates are still expected to rise this year
Fed mistakenly releases confidential staff forecasts
Economic projections show staff expect a more gradual pace of rate increases than most Fed officials; supposed to be released to public with a five-year lag
Bundesbank paper identifies two ‘clusters’ of credit cycles
Researchers find there is no common credit cycle among European and US economies, rather two distinct groups emerge with cycles converging within
South Africa hikes rate as inflation outlook deteriorates
South African Reserve Bank lifts key rate by 25bp to 6% on a 4-2 vote; Kganyago outlines concerns over potential for a exchange rate-inflation spiral in wake of Fed hike
Obama nominates Michigan professor to Fed board of governors
Obama picks Kathryn Dominguez, a top academic from the University of Michigan, to fill the second of two vacancies on the board of governors
Obstfeld will succeed Blanchard at IMF
Lagarde praises the ‘outstanding academic credentials’ of Obstfeld as she announces his appointment as economic counsellor and director of research
Fischer laments lack of coordination between US regulators
Fed vice-chair says most countries manage to supervise their financial systems in a more cooperative manner than in the US, but he holds little hope for change in the near future
Fed beige book points to areas of optimism
Most districts report economic activity as expanding at a ‘modest’ or ‘moderate’ pace, while many contacts indicate ‘optimism’ about future growth
Fed economist sees gaps in CCP risk management
Quant Congress USA: CCPs struggle to model conditional losses and auction behaviour
Yellen bats away calls for simple rules-based policy
Fed chair tells Committee on Financial Services a monetary policy rule based on two economic variables is inappropriate as ‘the world is more complicated than that’
Fed’s Brainard ponders whether systemic banks could choose to downsize
Governor Lael Brainard says systemically important institutions may choose to ‘reduce their systemic footprint’ as regulation kicks in and impacts cost-benefit analysis
Minneapolis Fed research separates Greece and Puerto Rico debt crises
Staff report notes the debt crisis has spilled over to the private sector in Greece but not in Puerto Rico, given the latter’s inability to interfere with private external debt contracts