United States
Fischer watched for rate views as Jackson Hole concludes
Symposium at Kansas City Fed closes with panel discussion featuring Carney, Constâncio, Fischer and Rajan on Saturday; one early session considers ‘international price system’
Household debt had modest impact on US consumption, research finds
Household debt in the US accounted only slightly for the decline in household consumption nationally in the 2000s, research published by ECB finds
IMF paper explores capital inflows and credit growth
Working paper finds an increase in capital inflows can fuel credit growth, but it depends on their composition; no ‘significant’ connection with foreign direct investment
People: Chicago appoints first vice-president, Ukraine adds deputy to deposit fund
Chicago Fed announces Ellen Bromagen as first vice-president and COO; changes at Ukraine’s deposit guarantee fund result in appointment of new deputy managing director; and more
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
Iranian central bank should not recover assets, US government argues
The department of justice has argued in a submission to the Supreme Court that Iran’s central bank should not recover $1.75 billion in assets awarded to the families of terrorism victims
FOMC inching towards rate hike, minutes hint
Minutes of July meeting show some members are still concerned that labour market and inflation data are not strong enough for a hike, but several think the economy is nearly ready
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
Dallas Fed picks former Goldman banker to replace Fisher
Robert Kaplan to take over as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, bringing experience in academia and as a senior executive at Goldman Sachs
New York Fed researchers shine light on process of giving policy advice
Economists including head of research explain the process of briefing William Dudley ahead of FOMC meetings
End of sanctions could be double-edged sword for Iranian banks
Iran central bank vice-governor warns domestic banks have work to do before they are opened up to international competition, but Iranian investors see end of sanctions as broadly positive
US rate hike still a possibility after ‘solid’ jobs data
Federal Reserve still on track to hike rates later this year, possibly as soon as September, after latest jobs data shows 215,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
Insurers call for clarity on US agency risk weightings
Capital treatment under Solvency II unclear, say securitisation specialists and insurers
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Fresh delay will push EU-US CCP row into September
Decision had been expected in July; dealers sceptical new timeline will hold
Fed’s Powell weighs factors behind market-making evolution
Governor notes regulation is a contributing factor but not a dominant one, explaining the evolution of market-making; technology and participant behaviour both important
Fed communication driving Trinidad and Tobago policy
Trinidad and Tobago MPC cites Fed guidance on interest rates as the ‘most influential factor’ in its decision to tighten monetary policy
Bundesbank research tracks changing financial cycle
Discussion paper seeks to establish the ‘empirical regularities’ of the financial cycle using an econometric model, finding the cycle has grown longer and more severe over time
BoJ paper finds emerging markets struggled to protect themselves from QE
Foreign exchange interventions and capital flow policies did little to shield emerging markets from the spillovers caused by quantitative easing in the US
Fed leaves door open for rate hike
FOMC statement offers hints that the US labour market is reaching a position where a hike could be possible, indicating interest rates are still expected to rise this year
Fed mistakenly releases confidential staff forecasts
Economic projections show staff expect a more gradual pace of rate increases than most Fed officials; supposed to be released to public with a five-year lag
Bundesbank paper identifies two ‘clusters’ of credit cycles
Researchers find there is no common credit cycle among European and US economies, rather two distinct groups emerge with cycles converging within
South Africa hikes rate as inflation outlook deteriorates
South African Reserve Bank lifts key rate by 25bp to 6% on a 4-2 vote; Kganyago outlines concerns over potential for a exchange rate-inflation spiral in wake of Fed hike
Obama nominates Michigan professor to Fed board of governors
Obama picks Kathryn Dominguez, a top academic from the University of Michigan, to fill the second of two vacancies on the board of governors