United States
Mexican deputy tells EMs to assume US rate hike coming ‘sooner rather than later’
Javier Guzmán Calafell advises emerging markets to prepare ‘as fast as possible for a worst-case scenario’ in anticipation of the Federal Reserve tightening policy later this year
Lagarde calls for ‘new multilateralism’ and pledges to move ahead on reform programme
Global policy agenda for coming year says the integration of key emerging market economies would ‘generate positive global spillovers and stability gains’
Dallas Fed studies debt impact on exchange rate fluctuations
Countries that are most vulnerable to a sudden shift in capital inflows and a sudden fall in the capital account have ‘a large stock of net non-foreign direct investment external liabilities’
Global economy in ‘unprecedented scenario’, says Linde
The global economy faces an "unprecedented scenario", including "risks to financial stability and possible highly volatile movements in the prices of financial assets", says Bank of Spain governor
US has chance to maintain leadership despite China’s AIIB
London School of Economics’ Danny Quah tells Central Banking the US must not cling dogmatically to its view of the world if it is to remain influential – and sharing power need not be all bad
Iran nuclear deal paves way to lift central bank sanctions
Deal struck between Iran and UN paves way for tough sanctions on the central bank to be lifted and Iranian banks to return to Swift payments system
US Treasury's cyber chief lays out cyber security blueprint
Julia Philipp recommends targeted defences, data sharing and response planning, at OpRisk North America conference
Yellen sees potential benefits in ‘tight’ labour market
Fed chair Janet Yellen says allowing unemployment to fall below its longer-run level for a short time could help return inflation to target quicker and boost productivity
Op risk analysis underrates human behaviour – Fed examiner
Next-generation operational risk should focus on behavioural dynamics in financial firms
Fischer sets sights on shadow banks
Fed vice-chair says US regulators must do more to regulate non-banks, including improvements to wholesale funding, better data and regulation that evolves at the same pace as the industry
NY Fed wants ‘enhanced communication’ around cyber threats
Sarah Dahlgren says the New York Fed is interested in learning from breaches in security elsewhere and using the intelligence to ‘get ahead of the game’
Fed’s Evans harbours ‘serious concerns’ over inflation
Chicago Fed president wants to see stronger wage growth and a recovery in ‘long-term inflation compensation’ demanded by investors before sanctioning rate hike
Fischer sees shocks disrupting future path of rates
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says smooth upward path for the federal funds rate will ‘almost certainly not be realised’ given the likelihood of shocks in the US economy
Forward guidance can help QE succeed, Finnish research says
Article in Bank of Finland bulletin considers whether eurozone is at risk of Japanese-style deflation, finding the ECB’s asset purchases reduce the odds of this outcome
People: Dallas Fed names interim president; Ukraine adds deputy governor
Helen Holcomb holds the fort at Dallas Fed after Richard Fisher retires; National Bank of Ukraine appoints another acting deputy governor; Cleveland Fed names new research head; and more
Lockhart backs ‘selective’ regulation of shadow banks
Atlanta Fed president argues for US authorities to ‘variably monitor and supervise’ all institutions with implications for financial stability, regardless of whether they are shadow banks
ECB forecasts ‘gradual’ increase in US inflation
Economic bulletin published by ECB agrees with FOMC that inflation will increase gradually as labour market conditions improve and impact of low oil prices and high dollar fades
Fed keeps options open as countdown to lift-off begins
FOMC drops the reference to being ‘patient’ before normalising policy, signalling a rate hike could arrive as early as June, but tempers expectations with more cautious economic assessment
Banks could face fines of $4bn from US DoJ
The fines being hammered out would nearly double the total already paid to regulators during the currency probe
RBA’s Debelle tackles term premia puzzle
Guy Debelle says the most plausible explanation for the prevailing low level of term premia in global fixed income markets is the shortage of risk-free assets
US banks hold up under Fed stress tests
Latest annual stress tests show 31 largest bank-holding companies would lose $490 billion under the Fed’s severely adverse scenario, which has been tightened compared to 2014
Colombian paper analyses relationship between term premia in US and Latin America
Brazil and Colombia are the Latin American countries with the largest responses to changes in the US term premium, according to research published by the Central Bank of Colombia
Plosser and Conti-Brown debate Fed governance reforms
Peter Conti-Brown proposes giving the Fed’s board of governors the power to appoint and remove Reserve Bank presidents; Charles Plosser rejects arguments in his response
Richmond Fed article questions use of dove and hawk to describe policy-makers
Article in Richmond Fed’s economic magazine argues the terms simplify the disagreements on the FOMC; says the idea of a split between two camps is ‘likely to persist’